基于小样本失效数据的机械可靠性评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-4099

工业工程 ›› 2017, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (5): 87-93.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-4099

基于小样本失效数据的机械可靠性评估

宋明顺, 鲁伟, 方兴华

中国计量大学经济与管理学院, 浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2017-04-26 出版日期:2017-10-30 发布日期:2017-11-17
作者简介:宋明顺(1961-),男,山东省人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为质量可靠性与标准化.
基金资助:
浙江省新苗人才计划资助项目（2017R409046）；浙江省自然科学基金资助项目（LQ18GO20005）

A Research on Mechanical Reliability Assessment Based on Small Sample Failure Data

SONG Mingshun, LU Wei, FANG Xinghua

School of Economic and Management, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China

Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-10-30 Published:2017-11-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “高可靠，少失效”的机械产品或系统特征使得可靠性评估变得愈发困难。针对这一问题，提出了一种基于三参数威布尔分布的小样本失效数据的机械可靠性评估方法。在确定寿命分布模型的基础上对小样本失效数据采用灰色估计法进行三参数估计，并进行拟合优度检验，进而通过蒙特卡洛抽样得到的子样作为参数的贝叶斯先验分布。在此基础上通过贝叶斯公式计算三参数后验分布，继而得到系统的可靠度、失效率等可靠性指标，更加准确地对小样本失效数据的机械可靠性进行评估。实际算例验证了方法的有效性。

关键词: 小样本失效数据, 威布尔分布, 贝叶斯-蒙特卡洛方法, 机械可靠性

Abstract: “Higher reliability, less failure” features of mechanical products or system make reliability assessment more difficult. To address this problem, an evaluation method of small sample of three parameter Weibull distribution is proposed based on the data of failure of mechanical reliability. Based on the determination of life distribution model, the failure data of small sample is estimated by using the grey estimation method, and the goodness of fit test is carried out, then Bayes prior distribution obtained by Monte Carlo sample as a parameter. On this basis, the three- parameter posterior distribution can be calculated by Bayes formula, and then the system reliability, failure rate and so on are derived, to evaluate the mechanical reliability of small sample failure data more accurately. The effectiveness of the method is verified by a practical example.

Key words: small sample failure data, Weibull distribution, Bayesian Monte-Carlo, mechanical reliability

中图分类号:

TH21

宋明顺, 鲁伟, 方兴华. 基于小样本失效数据的机械可靠性评估[J]. 工业工程, 2017, 20(5): 87-93.

SONG Mingshun, LU Wei, FANG Xinghua. A Research on Mechanical Reliability Assessment Based on Small Sample Failure Data[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2017, 20(5): 87-93.

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基于小样本失效数据的机械可靠性评估

A Research on Mechanical Reliability Assessment Based on Small Sample Failure Data

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