工业工程

工业工程 ›› 2012, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 128-133.

• 实践与应用 • 上一篇    

煤矿水灾害影响因子的系统动力学研究

  

  1. 郑州大学 管理工程研究所，河南 郑州 450001
  • 出版日期:2012-04-30 发布日期:2012-05-17
  • 作者简介:张志强（1984-），男，安徽省人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为系统工程、安全管理.

Research on Influencing Factors of Colliery Flood Based on System Dynamics

  1. Institute of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • Online:2012-04-30 Published:2012-05-17
  • Supported by:

    国家社会科学基金资助项目（10BGL087）；河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划（自然科学领域）（2008HASTIT010）

摘要： 依据系统动力学的原理和方法，建立反映煤矿水灾害安全水平的系统动力学模型并进行动态仿真，研究了煤矿水灾害在多因素共同作用下的系统动力学演化机理，并对模型中关键参数进行灵敏度分析。结果表明，煤矿水灾害安全水平的提高是个长期的过程；加强安全管理，提高人员安全水平是减少煤矿水灾害事故的重点，为煤矿水灾害安全决策提供了一种新的分析思路。

关键词: 煤矿水灾害, 系统动力学, 仿真, 灵敏度分析

Abstract: In order to reduce the loss that results from colliery flood, a system dynamics model is established to describe the security level of colliery flood. Based on the model, simulation analysis is carried out under multiple factors. In this way, system dynamic evolution mechanism of colliery flood is revealed. Also, sensitivity analysis is made with respect to the key parameters of the model. Results show that to improve the security level of colliery flood is a long term process. It also finds that, to improve the security level of colliery flood, effort should be made to strengthen the safety management and improve the personnel security level. The proposed method is helpful for safety decision of colliery flood.

Key words: colliery flood, system dynamics, simulation, sensitivity analysis