相关产出和需求不确定下供应链外包策略

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 产出不确定是供应链风险管理中的一个重要话题。本文研究了产出不确定和需求不确定相关的情况下竞争企业外包策略选择问题。竞争企业可以采用单源订货或双源订货两种策略。通过两阶段博弈模型刻画了竞争企业的均衡。研究发现当产出不确定与需求不确定之间的相关系数较大且固定订货成本较低时，双源订货是企业的占优策略，竞争企业都选择双源订货策略构成唯一的纳什均衡。当产出不确定与需求不确定之间的相关系数较小且固定订货成本较高时，单源订货是企业的占优策略，竞争企业都选择单源订货策略构成唯一的纳什均衡。论文还给出了存在两个对称的纳什均衡的条件。

关键词: 供应链, 产出不确定, 外包, 博弈

Abstract: Yield uncertainty has become an important research topic in supply chain management. Competing retailers′ outsourcing strategies in the presence of correlated yield and demand uncertainty are investigated. Both retailers can choose dualsource procurement strategies or single-source procurement strategies. A two-stage game theory model is established and the optimal order quantity, the optimal profit and the threshold of fixed cost found out. It is found that dualsource dominates single-source and both retailers use dual-source strategies if the correlation is relatively high and the fixed cost is low. Otherwise, single-source dominates dualsource and both retailers use single-source strategies. In addition, if the cost is between the two thresholds, there are two symmetric SPNE (subgame perfect Nash equilibrium). 

Key words: supply chain, yield uncertainty, outsourcing, game theory 

何波, 王娟. 相关产出和需求不确定下供应链外包策略[J]. 工业工程, 2015, 18(5): 93-99.

He Bo, Wang Juan. The Outsourcing Strategies Choice under Correlated Yield andDemand Uncertainty[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2015, 18(5): 93-99.

参考文献

［1］Agrawal N, Nahmias S. Rationalization of the supplier base in the presense of yield uncertainty ［J］. Production and Operations Management, 1997, 6(3): 291-308. ［2］Anupindi R, Akella R. Diversification under supply uncertainty ［J］. Management science, 1993, 39(8): 944-963. ［3］Babich V, Ritchken P H, Burnetas A. Competition and diversification effects in supply chains with supplier default risk ［J］. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2007, 9(2): 123-146. ［4］Dada M, Petruzzi N C, Schwarz L B. A newsvendor’s procurement problem when suppliers are unreliable ［J］. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2007, 9(1): 9-32. ［5］Tomlin B. Disruption management strategies for short life cycle products ［J］. Naval Research Logistics, 2009, 56(4): 318-347. ［6］Wang Y, Gilland W, Tomlin B. Mitigating supply risk: dual sourcing or process improvement?［J］. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2010, 12(3): 489-510. ［7］李彬,季建华,孟翠翠.应对突发事件的双源采购鲁棒订货策略［J］.系统管理学报,2014(03):381-387. Li Bin, Ji Jian-hua, Meng Cui-cui. Respond to emergencies dualsource robust order procurement strategy ［J］.Journal of Systems & Management, 2014(03): 381-387.  ［8］Tang C S, Yin R. Responsive pricing under supply uncertainty［J］. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 182(1): 239-255. ［9］Gurnani H,Gerchak Y. Coordination in decentralized assembly systems with uncertain component yields ［J］. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 176(3): 1559-1976. ［10］彭红军,周梅华,刘满芝. 两级生产与需求不确定下供应链风险共担模型研究［J］. 管理工程学报,2013(03):156-163. Peng Hong-jun, Zhou Mei-hua, Liu Man-zhi.Research on risk sharing model in supply chain with uncertainties in twolevel yields and demand ［J］.Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2013(03):156-163. ［11］Feng Q. Integrating dynamic pricing and replenishment decisions under and supply capacity uncertainty［J］. Management Science, 2010, 56(12): 2154-2172. ［12］He Yuan-jie. Sequential price and quantity decisions under supply and demand risks ［J］. International Journal of Production Economics, 2013,141(2): 541-551. ［13］何波,郑志欣. 供需双重不确定下链与链竞争的博弈分析［J］. 工业工程,2014,17(1):137-143. He Bo, Zheng Zhi-xin. Analysis of chain-to-chain competition under supply disruption and stochastic demands［J］.Industrial Engineering Journal,2014,17(1):137-143.［14］Li T, Sethi S P, Zhang J. How does pricing power affect a firm’s sourcing decisions from unreliable suppliers? ［J］. International Journal of Production Research, 2013, 51(23): 6990-7005. ［15］Tang S, Kouvelis P. Supplier diversification strategies in the presence of yield uncertainty and buyer competition ［J］. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2011, 13(4): 439-451. ［16］Ha C Y, Tong S. Contracting and information sharing under supply chain competition ［J］. Management science, 2008, 54(4): 701-715. ［17］Wang Y, Thomas D J, Rudi N. The Effect of competition on the efficient responsive Choice［J］. Production and Operation Management, 2014, 23(5): 829-510.

[1]	杜建国, 王雅柔. 考虑公平关切的低碳双渠道供应链决策研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(5): 18-26.
[2]	覃燕红, 向林, 秦星红. 公平偏好下考虑双边保鲜努力的生鲜农产品供应链协调研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(5): 27-38.
[3]	郑本荣, 云方旭. 制造商竞争环境下供应链CSR投入模式选择研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(5): 39-46.
[4]	魏杰, 王玉超, 田晨. 基于电商平台的互补产品捆绑策略及销售模式研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(5): 47-54.
[5]	邵必林, 崔梦桦. 考虑零售商公平关切的绿色供应链主体行为演化博弈研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(5): 124-131.
[6]	李林, 雷雅琳, 何建洪. 消费者绿色偏好、参考价格效应与供应链绿色创新[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 20-26.
[7]	董海, 吴瑶. 基于PIWOA的绿色闭环供应链网络多目标模糊优化设计[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 27-35.
[8]	闵杰, 杨冉, 欧剑, 曹宗宏. 基于双向成本分担的绿色供应链运营策略研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 36-44.
[9]	彭永涛, 陆含, 赵艳萍. 面向延保服务的网购供应链协调策略研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 45-55.
[10]	刘虹, 林敏. 减排和宣传的时延与低碳参考双重效应影响下供应链决策研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 56-66,99.
[11]	杨轩, 罗建强. 基于供需行为博弈的制造企业混合产品提供模式[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 119-126.
[12]	李晓华, 邵举平, 孙延安. 基于SD及三方博弈的低碳供应链消费市场活力激发研究[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 150-159.
[13]	吴春尚. 基于Stackelberg博弈模型的不同主导权的三级农产品电商供应链决策分析[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 160-167.
[14]	陈佳媛, 周刚. 不同主导权结构下服务水平对高铁快递供应链价格策略的影响[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(4): 168-176.
[15]	曹炳汝, 朱博文. 考虑再制造投资的闭环供应链网络均衡模型[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(3): 1-9.