基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3091

工业工程 ›› 2017, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (4): 57-64.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3091

基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估

李康, 徐海燕, 陈浩

南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 南京江苏 211106

收稿日期:2017-04-18 出版日期:2017-08-30 发布日期:2017-09-08
作者简介:李康(1993-),男,河南省人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为项目管理、质量管理等
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71071076，71471087，61673209）

A Critical Chain Project Duration Risk Evaluation Based on Grey Clustering Method

LI Kang, XU Haiyan, CHEN Hao

College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

Received:2017-04-18 Online:2017-08-30 Published:2017-09-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 工期不确定以及资源冲突等问题的存在使得项目进度管理更加复杂。为有效地识别工期风险，本文在灰色关键链法的基础上，首先运用一致指数对工序工期进行灰色估计，并综合考虑资源紧张度、工序复杂度、开工柔性、风险偏好、环境不确定性5个影响项目进度的不确定性因素。然后，基于三角白化权函数的灰色聚类评估模型确定综合聚类系数，从而进行工期风险评估。最后通过算例分析，快速识别工期风险大的工序，降低工期延误风险，验证所提方法的有效性和实用性。

关键词: 关键链, 工期风险, 灰色聚类方法, 三角白化权函数

Abstract: Duration uncertainty, resource conflict and other issues make project schedule management more complex. In order to effectively identify the duration risk, based on the gray critical chain method, the consistency index is used to make a gray estimation of the duration and the uncertainty factors such as resource stress, process complexity, work flexibility, risk preference and environmental uncertainty are fully considered. Then the duration risk evaluation is carried out by using the clustering coefficient determined based on the gray clustering evaluation model of the triangular whitening weight function. Finally, it is applied into a practical case to identify the processes with high duration risk and reduce the delay risk to prove the effectiveness and practicability of proposed method.

Key words: critical chain, duration risk, gray clustering method, triangular whitenization weight function

中图分类号:

李康, 徐海燕, 陈浩. 基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估[J]. 工业工程, 2017, 20(4): 57-64.

LI Kang, XU Haiyan, CHEN Hao. A Critical Chain Project Duration Risk Evaluation Based on Grey Clustering Method[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2017, 20(4): 57-64.

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基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估

A Critical Chain Project Duration Risk Evaluation Based on Grey Clustering Method

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