基于装配相似性与灰色模型的汽车装配工时预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2018.03.011

工业工程 ›› 2018, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 87-92.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2018.03.011

基于装配相似性与灰色模型的汽车装配工时预测

常建娥¹, 李帅¹, 莫易敏¹, 张峰¹, 王天生²

1. 武汉理工大学机电工程学院, 湖北武汉 430070;
2. 上汽通用五菱股份有限公司, 广西柳州 545000

收稿日期:2018-01-07 出版日期:2018-06-30 发布日期:2018-06-20
作者简介:常建娥(1962-),女,湖北省人,教授,主要研究方向为物流工程、机械工程等

Man-hour Prediction Method for Automobile Assembly Based on Assembly Similarity and Grey Model

CHANG Jian'e¹, LI Shuai¹, MO Yimin¹, ZHANG Feng¹, WANG Tiansheng²

1. School of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Wuhan Uiversity of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China;
2. SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co. Ltd, Liuzhou 545000, China

Received:2018-01-07 Online:2018-06-30 Published:2018-06-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 汽车企业为适应市场需求的不断变化，加快了推出新车型产品的步伐。针对目前汽车总装混流工时预测速度缓慢的问题，提出基于装配相似性与灰色理论GM（0，N）模型的装配工时预测方法。将装配工时按特性分为取料时间、定位时间和连接时间，提取影响各部分工时的关键因素，通过计算样本与基准零件的装配相似系数，结合装配工时在MATLAB中构建拟合曲线，最后在函数关系式和GM（0，N）模型中分别预测定位时间和连接时间。通过与MTM法进行比较，证实该方法具有准确性和高效性。

关键词: 混流装配, 工时预测, 装配相似性, Matlab软件, GM(0, N)模型

Abstract: Automobile manufacturers speed up the launch of new products to meet the changing market demand. A man-hour prediction method for automobile assembly based on assembly similarity and grey model was put forward to solve the problem of slow prediction speed on mixed-model automobile assembly line. Assembly hour was classified into picking, positioning and coupling time by the characteristics, extracting key factors which influence assembly hour for each type. The similarity coefficient between the sample process and benchmark process was computed with factor database, constructing fitting curves in MATLAB combined with working hour data. The positioning and coupling time predictions were gained in the functional expression and GM(0, N) grey model. The accuracy and high-efficiency of proposed method was verified by comparing with Method-Time-Measurement.

Key words: mixed-model assembly, man-hour prediction, assembly similarity, Matlab software, GM(0, N) model

中图分类号:

TH16

常建娥, 李帅, 莫易敏, 张峰, 王天生. 基于装配相似性与灰色模型的汽车装配工时预测[J]. 工业工程, 2018, 21(3): 87-92.

CHANG Jian'e, LI Shuai, MO Yimin, ZHANG Feng, WANG Tiansheng. Man-hour Prediction Method for Automobile Assembly Based on Assembly Similarity and Grey Model[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2018, 21(3): 87-92.

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基于装配相似性与灰色模型的汽车装配工时预测

Man-hour Prediction Method for Automobile Assembly Based on Assembly Similarity and Grey Model

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