双寡头竞争环境下消费者行为对创新产品销售影响的仿真分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.06.002

工业工程 ›› 2019, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 8-16,26.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.06.002

双寡头竞争环境下消费者行为对创新产品销售影响的仿真分析

李锋, 余菡

华南理工大学工商管理学院, 广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2019-03-06 发布日期:2019-12-24
作者简介:李锋(1975-),河北省人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为运营管理问题的复杂系统仿真和优化
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目（71572070）

Impact of Consumer Behavior on New Product Diffusion under Duopoly Market: A Simulation Approach

LI Feng, YU Han

School of Business administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China

Received:2019-03-06 Published:2019-12-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于创新产品扩散的Bass模型，构建了双寡头竞争市场环境下产品销售模型。模型考虑了竞争产品扩散过程中的相互影响，并刻画了部分消费者购买决策时“犹豫”行为。通过研究问题的系统动力学建模，仿真模拟了不同市场竞争环境下的产品需求。仿真结果表明，在双寡头竞争的市场环境中，消费者“犹豫”行为对产品的市场需求有负面影响。而且，企业竞争地位的不同会降低处于竞争劣势的企业的产品需求量。因此，竞争中处于劣势的企业应当加强其产品的口碑影响力，如提升用户体验，鼓励用户积极反馈来弥补自己竞争中的不足。

关键词: 新产品扩散, Bass模型, 双寡头竞争, 消费者行为, 系统动力学

Abstract: Based on the Bass model which is the most representative of innovative product diffusion, an improved model of product sales in a duopoly competitive market environment was constructed. The model considered the internal influence between competitive products in the diffusion process and the "hesitant" behavior of some consumers in making purchase decisions. A system dynamics modeling was used to simulate the product demand under different market competitive environments. The simulation proved that in the competitive environment of duopoly products, the "hesitant" behavior of consumers has a negative impact on the market demand of products. Moreover, the gap in the competitive status of the enterprise will reduce the demand for products of competitive disadvantages. Therefore, enterprises at a competitive disadvantage should strengthen the word-of-mouth influence of their products, such as improving the user experience and encouraging the active feedback from users to make up for the shortcomings in the competition.

Key words: new product diffusion, Bass model, duopoly market, consumer behavior, system dynamics

中图分类号:

TP391.3

李锋, 余菡. 双寡头竞争环境下消费者行为对创新产品销售影响的仿真分析[J]. 工业工程, 2019, 22(6): 8-16,26.

LI Feng, YU Han. Impact of Consumer Behavior on New Product Diffusion under Duopoly Market: A Simulation Approach[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2019, 22(6): 8-16,26.

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双寡头竞争环境下消费者行为对创新产品销售影响的仿真分析

Impact of Consumer Behavior on New Product Diffusion under Duopoly Market: A Simulation Approach

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