供应链中过度自信零售商的决策特征与理性供应商的调节措施

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.06.011

工业工程 ›› 2019, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 80-88.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.06.011

供应链中过度自信零售商的决策特征与理性供应商的调节措施

赵婉鹛^1,2, 叶春明¹

1. 上海理工大学管理学院, 上海 200093;
2. 上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院, 上海 201620

收稿日期:2019-01-10 发布日期:2019-12-24
作者简介:赵婉鹛(1978-),女,吉林省人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为供应链管理、行为运作管理
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71840003）；上海理工大学科技发展基金资助项目（2018KJFZ043）

The Decision Characteristics of the Overconfident Retailer and the Adjustment Methods of the Rational Supplier in a Supply Chain

ZHAO Wanmei^1,2, YE Chunming¹

1. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China;
2. School of Business, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai 201620, China

Received:2019-01-10 Published:2019-12-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在典型的二级供应链报童模型中引入零售商的过度自信行为，借助Stackelberg博弈理论，探讨市场需求随机分布状态下，零售商的过度自信强度及市场环境变量两个主要因素对零售商订购决策及收益的影响情况。通过对零售商理性收益、期望收益及理想收益的比较，得出零售商的过度自信行为将提高其理想收益，降低其期望收益的结论。通过对零售商过度自信行为引起供应商收益变化的讨论，提出一定条件下，理性供应商通过价格调节实现双方收益Pareto改进的措施。最后通过算例对上述理论分析和模型推导进行了验证。

关键词: 过度自信, 决策偏差, 价格调节, Pareto改进

Abstract: It is an instructive and helpful analysis to investigate the effects of overconfidence behaviors on members' decision making and profits in a supply chain. The retailers' overconfidence behavior in a typical two echelon supply chain is introduced based on the Newsvendor Model. It discusses the influence of the retailer's overconfidence intensity as well as the market environment variables on its ordering decisions and profits with the assumption that the distribution of market demands is random. It makes a comparative analysis of the retailer's rational profits, expected profits and ideal profits and draws a conclusion that the retailer's overconfidence behavior will lead to the increasing of its ideal profits and the decreasing of its expected profits. It also concludes that the rational supplier's profits will also be influenced by the retailer's overconfidence behavior but he could achieve both members' Pareto improvement by price adjusting under certain conditions. Some examples are given to validate these theoretical analyses and model deductions in the end.

Key words: overconfidence, decision bias, price adjusting, Pareto improvement

中图分类号:

F274

赵婉鹛, 叶春明. 供应链中过度自信零售商的决策特征与理性供应商的调节措施[J]. 工业工程, 2019, 22(6): 80-88.

ZHAO Wanmei, YE Chunming. The Decision Characteristics of the Overconfident Retailer and the Adjustment Methods of the Rational Supplier in a Supply Chain[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2019, 22(6): 80-88.

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供应链中过度自信零售商的决策特征与理性供应商的调节措施

The Decision Characteristics of the Overconfident Retailer and the Adjustment Methods of the Rational Supplier in a Supply Chain

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[1]	石岿然, 周扬, 蒋凤. 考虑零售商过度自信的供应链决策与协调[J]. 工业工程, 2014, 17(3): 46-50.
[2]	谢勇, 孟楚, 王红卫. 过度自信的报童模型研究[J]. 工业工程, 2013, 16(4): 38-43.