模仿创新企业进入时机和动态定价联合决策问题研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2020.05.002

工业工程 ›› 2020, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 11-21,95.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2020.05.002

模仿创新企业进入时机和动态定价联合决策问题研究

李锋, 余菡

华南理工大学工商管理学院，广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2019-08-03 发布日期:2020-10-30
作者简介:李锋(1975-)，男，河北省人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为运营管理问题的复杂系统仿真和优化
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572070)

A Study of Dynamic Pricing and Entry Timing Joint Decision for Imitative Enterprise

LI Feng, YU Han

School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China

Received:2019-08-03 Published:2020-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以系统动力学建模为研究方法，通过仿真研究模拟创新企业进入市场后的市场需求变化和收益情况，特别分析了当企业的决策目标分别为产品销量最大或产品收益最大两种情景下的运营策略。模型探讨了包括消费者犹豫行为和消费者对产品打折销售的心理预期两种不同消费者行为偏好对企业运营策略的影响。结果表明：模仿创新企业以追求产品销售最大化为目标时，其最优的运营策略为尽早打折和较大的价格折扣；而当模仿创新企业追求收益最大化时，其最优的运营策略是不打折。当消费者存在产品打折的心理预期时，企业通过推后打折时间，既满足消费者的心理预期，还能获得更多的产品收益。

关键词: 模仿创新企业, 市场进入时机, 动态定价, Bass模型, 系统动力学仿真

Abstract: The entry timing decision and pricing strategies have become increasingly important for imitative enterprises due to competitive market environment. To address these problems, a system dynamics modeling approach was proposed. Using this method, demand and profit of the imitative enterprise under the duopoly market were calculated by simulations of the system dynamics model. Two objectives for the imitative enterprise were discussed. One is to maximize the sales, and the other is to maximize the profit. In the model, two kinds of consumer behaviors were considered: the hesitant behavior before purchasing the product, and the expectation for future price’s discount. The simulation results revealed that the optimal operation strategies for those targeting market share are to discount the product once entering the market. By contrast, if the imitative enterprises pursue maximizing their profits, the optimal strategies are not to discount the product. Moreover, if price discounted is a common knowledge, the imitative enterprises will benefit from delay price discount.

Key words: imitative enterprise, market entry timing, dynamic pricing, Bass model, system dynamics simulation

中图分类号:

TP391.3

李锋, 余菡. 模仿创新企业进入时机和动态定价联合决策问题研究[J]. 工业工程, 2020, 23(5): 11-21,95.

LI Feng, YU Han. A Study of Dynamic Pricing and Entry Timing Joint Decision for Imitative Enterprise[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2020, 23(5): 11-21,95.

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模仿创新企业进入时机和动态定价联合决策问题研究

A Study of Dynamic Pricing and Entry Timing Joint Decision for Imitative Enterprise

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