基于GM-噪声SVR方法的矿山设备可靠性参数估计

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2021.02.015

工业工程 ›› 2021, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 119-124.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2021.02.015

基于GM-噪声SVR方法的矿山设备可靠性参数估计

王贺¹, 吴振博¹, 徐添¹, 王志强¹, 刘超²

1. 山东科技大学能源与矿业工程学院;
2. 经济管理学院，山东青岛 266590

收稿日期:2020-02-17 发布日期:2021-04-25
通讯作者: 刘超(1975-)，男，山东省人，讲师，硕士，主要研究方向为财务成本管理理论与实务。E-mail:13969680484@163.com E-mail:13969680484@163.com
作者简介:王贺(1996-)，男，山东省人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为设备维护
基金资助:
中国煤炭工业协会科学技术研究指导性计划项目 (MTKJ2012-338)

Reliability Parameter Estimation of Mining Equipment Based on GM-noise SVR Method

WANG He¹, WU Zhenbo¹, XU Tian¹, WANG Zhiqiang¹, LIU Chao²

1. College of Energy and Mining Engineering;
2. College of Economics and Management, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China

Received:2020-02-17 Published:2021-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了有效估计小子样条件下矿山设备的三参数威布尔分布可靠性模型参数，提出基于GM-噪声SVR的参数估计方法。该方法以灰色估计法(GM)为基础估计模型的位置参数，采用基于训练样本数量和噪声参数寻优的ε - 带支持向量回归机(ε-SVR)估计尺度参数和形状参数，并通过拟合的三参数威布尔分布函数分析预测和解决设备的可靠性问题。算例结果表明，GM-噪声SVR方法可以很好地用于矿山设备可靠性模型参数估计，估计某带式输送机三参数威布尔分布可靠性模型的位置参数、尺度参数和形状参数依次为3.1525、188.3763、1.0476，平均无故障时间为188 h，标准均方根误差NRMSE为0.0519。这表明该方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 小子样, 灰色估计法, ε - 带支持向量回归机, 可靠性分析

Abstract: A parameter estimation method based on GM-noise SVR is proposed to effectively estimate the parameters of the three-parameter Weibull distribution reliability model of mining equipment under the condition of small samples. The method is based on grey estimation method (GM), and then a ε-band support vector regression (ε-SVR) training model based on training sample number and noise parameter optimization is established. The location parameter, scale parameter and shape parameter of the three-parameter Weibull distribution model are estimated sequentially, and the reliability of the equipment analyzed and predicted through fitting the three-parameter Weibull distribution function. The results of the example show that the GM-noise SVR method can be well used to estimate the reliability model parameters of mining equipment. The location parameter, scale parameters and shape parameter of the three-parameter Weibull distribution of a certain type of belt conveyor estimated to be 3.1525, 188.376, 1.0476, the mean time between failures is 188 hours, and the normalized root mean square error is 0.0519, indicating the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Key words: small sample, grey estimation, ε-band support vector regression, reliability analysis

中图分类号:

TD528

王贺, 吴振博, 徐添, 王志强, 刘超. 基于GM-噪声SVR方法的矿山设备可靠性参数估计[J]. 工业工程, 2021, 24(2): 119-124.

WANG He, WU Zhenbo, XU Tian, WANG Zhiqiang, LIU Chao. Reliability Parameter Estimation of Mining Equipment Based on GM-noise SVR Method[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2021, 24(2): 119-124.

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基于GM-噪声SVR方法的矿山设备可靠性参数估计

Reliability Parameter Estimation of Mining Equipment Based on GM-noise SVR Method

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