过度自信对新能源汽车供应链合作研发决策影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2022.04.016

工业工程 ›› 2022, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 134-142.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2022.04.016

过度自信对新能源汽车供应链合作研发决策影响研究

马亮, 蒲天乐

兰州理工大学经济管理学院，甘肃兰州 730050

收稿日期:2020-09-14 发布日期:2022-08-30
作者简介:马亮 (1981—)，男，甘肃省人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为技术创新管理、新兴产业政策
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71764015)；甘肃省社科规划资助项目(20YB051)

A Research on the Impact of Overconfidence on Joint R&D Decision of New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain

MA Liang, PU Tianle

School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China

Received:2020-09-14 Published:2022-08-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 选择新能源汽车供应链为对象，对比分析3种不同过度自信和完全理性条件下的电池生产商和汽车制造商合作决策结果。发现3种不同的过度自信都可促进双方研发努力投入，使供应链整体效用提升，且在双方都达到过度自信状况下的促进作用最强。为提高双方过度自信效应，本文建立针对性的收益分享机制，在一定优化分析基础上确定续航能力和供应链整体效用最大条件下的收益分享系数，这样可以大幅度提高供应链整体效益。最后通过模拟分析方法验证了不同情形下过度自信的影响，提出相应的优化建议。

关键词: 新能源汽车供应链, 合作研发, 过度自信, 收益分享

Abstract: The new energy vehicle supply chain is chosen as an object, and the changes of cooperative R&D decisions between battery manufacturers and automobile manufacturers are compared and analyzed under three different conditions of overconfidence and complete rationality. The results show that overconfidence in the three conditions can promote to some extent the R&D effort investment of battery manufacturer and automobile manufacturer, which is beneficial to improve the overall utility of the supply chain, and the effect of overconfidence in the condition of both sides is the strongest. In order to improve the overconfidence effect of both sides, a targeted revenue sharing mechanism is established, and the revenue sharing coefficient under the maximum condition of endurance capacity and the overall utility of the supply chain is determined, which can reach the optimum overall benefit of the supply chain. Finally, the effect of it in different situations is verified by simulation analysis, and corresponding optimization suggestions are put forward.

Key words: new energy vehicle supply chain, joint R&D, overconfidence, revenue sharing

中图分类号:

F273.1

马亮, 蒲天乐. 过度自信对新能源汽车供应链合作研发决策影响研究[J]. 工业工程, 2022, 25(4): 134-142.

MA Liang, PU Tianle. A Research on the Impact of Overconfidence on Joint R&D Decision of New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2022, 25(4): 134-142.

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过度自信对新能源汽车供应链合作研发决策影响研究

A Research on the Impact of Overconfidence on Joint R&D Decision of New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain

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