基于过度自信的双渠道绿色供应链决策研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2022.05.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在决策者过高估计消费者对产品绿色度的敏感性以及过度精确估计产品需求的不确定性的情形下，研究决策者的过度自信对双渠道绿色供应链的产品绿色度决策、产品定价和供应链成员利润的影响。基于博弈理论，构建集中式决策下制造商和零售商同时过度自信、分散式决策下仅零售商过度自信和分散式决策下仅制造商过度自信3种情形下的双渠道供应链决策模型，通过优化求解和仿真分析得出结论。研究发现，零售商的过度自信导致产品绿色度、批发价、直销渠道零售价和制造商利润下降，而零售商利润与零售渠道价格的变化与零售渠道市场份额有关；制造商的过度自信导致产品绿色度、批发价、两种渠道零售价及制造商利润增大，而零售商利润随制造商过度自信水平先增后减。

关键词: 过度自信, 绿色供应链, 双渠道, 产品绿色度

Abstract: Considering decision-makers overestimate consumers' sensitivity to product greenness and the accuracy of uncertainty in product demand, a study is conducted on the impact of decision-makers' overconfidence on product greenness, product pricing and supply chain member profit in a dual-channel green supply chain. Based on game theory, a dual channel supply chain decision-making model is constructed under the three situations: both the manufacturer and the retailer are overconfident under centralized decision-making, only the retailer is overconfident under decentralized decision-making and only the manufacturer is overconfident under decentralized decision-making, and draws a conclusion through optimization solution and simulation analysis. The results show that, the retailer's overconfidence leads to a decline in product greenness, wholesale price, direct-sale channel retail price and manufacturer's profit, while the change of retailer's profit and retail price are related to retail channel market share; the manufacturer's overconfidence leads to the increase of product greenness, wholesale price, retail price of two channels and manufacturer's profit, while the retailer's profit increases first and then decreases with the manufacturer's overconfidence.

Key words: overconfidence, green supply chain, dual-channel, product greenness

中图分类号:

F253

周辉. 基于过度自信的双渠道绿色供应链决策研究[J]. 工业工程, 2022, 25(5): 47-54.

ZHOU Hui. Decision-making of Dual-Channel Green Supply Chain Based on Overconfidence[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2022, 25(5): 47-54.

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