An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Regional Logistics and Regional Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

Abstract

Abstract: The relationship between the regional logistics and regional economic growth in Guangdong Province is analyzed based on the annual data from 1978 to 2009. Three indices that have significant effect on the regional logistics development are chosen in the analysis. After the VAR (vector autoregression) model is developed for the problem, impulse response function is applied to analyze the interactive relationship between economic growth and logistics development. Then, cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to analyze the longterm relationship and the causal relationship between them. Results show that there is a longterm cointegration relationship between them. In the long run, the logistics industry promotes the economic growth. However, while the economic growth has boosting effect on the regional logistics, the regional logistics has no significant effect on the regional economic growth. The reason is that the logistics industry here is still in the early stage. Finally, suggestions on logistics industry development in Guangdong Province are given.

Key words: logistics, economic growth, vector autoregression model, co integration

Gao Xiuli1,2，Wang Aihu1, Fang Xingchao1. An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Regional Logistics and Regional Economic Growth in Guangdong Province[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2012, 15(1): 60-65.

References

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