Abstract: In taking the advantages of energy saving and environment protection, electric vehicles have being rapidly developed in the market. Their long term diffusion on the competitive market is very important for the stakeholders to make their decision. To analyze the long term diffusion of electric vehicles, after analyzing the technical and economical properties of electric and combustion vehicles, a model is developed for this problem by using the innovation and diffusion theory, and biological population competition theory. Then, simulation and theoretical analysis is carried out to show the impact of the carry cost advantage of the electric vehicles over the combustion vehicles on the competition and diffusion trend, and on the final market as well. It is found that the advantage of the carry cost is the key factor that affects if the electric vehicles can replace the combustion vehicles and finally capture the market. The greater the advantage is, the more possibility is for the electric vehicles to capture the market.

Key words: electric vehicles, combustion vehicles, diffusion model, carry cost