Abstract: Based on the experience in Japan and practical situations in China, the necessity of building emergency shelters for earthquake disasters in Shanghai is studied in this paper. A model is developed for analyzing the dynamic behavior when an earthquake happens. By this model, engineering and technological features, such as geologic and geographic factors, the speed on the earth’s surface, the possibility of water supply cut-off, are considered. Also, sociological and psychological features, such as patience to the water supply cut-off and human choices on emergency shelters, are considered. With the model and in light of human factors, the effect of different features on the need for emergency shelters is analyzed. It shows that there is significant difference between the results obtained by the proposed model and that from the model based on the constructional features. The needs caused by constructional features may be 60% less than the maximal one. In addition, it also shows the changing tendency for emergency shelter needs by time.

Key words: emergency shelter, earthquake disasters, human factors