Abstract:  The existing fuel evaluation models could not accurately direct both civil aircraft marketing analysis and aviation carbon emissions policymakings. In order to solve these shortcomings, the statistical data of types of aircraft operated by domestic airlines are used to analyze the main microfactors the level of average fuel consumption impacted with gray correlation analysis and the correlation coefficient method. Then the regression approach is utilized to analyze the relationship between route aircraft fuel consumption and sector distance, in which the impact of designing range and seat capacity on regression parameters are sufficiently considered. Finally, the analytical expression is presented to describe the mean fuel consumption model for civil passenger aircraft. 275 data generating from 11 aircraft types are used to estimate the parameters in the model and the fit goodness reaches 0.9979. Furthermore, the predicting tests using 16 data from 11 aircraft types indicate the average relative error is 0.0379. Hence, the model is practical and feasible owing to the high forecasting accuracy.

Key words: airline industry, fuel consumption, regression analysis, seat capacity, designing range, sector distance