Industrial Engineering Journal

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A Project Duration Risk Analysis and Evaluation Under Multiple Influencing Factors Based on PERT

  

  1. 1. School of Management, Tianjin Ploytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China; 2. Tianjin Water Engineering Construction and Transaction Center, Tianjin 300204,China
  • Online:2015-12-31 Published:2016-03-24

Abstract:

In order to effectively control the construction project duration, an evaluation method under multiple influencing factors based on PERT is proposed. The risk factors affecting the project duration are analyzed and some different assumptions about the distribution of the delay time caused by each risk factor made to determine the impact on each activity. Then, each path duration distribution of the project is determined through Monte Carlo simulation, by which the independent and combined effectiveness of the risk factors is obtained, and the duration risk is analyzed and controlled from different perspectives.

Key words: engineering management, project duration, PERT(program/project evaluation and review technique), Monte Carlo simulation