Risk Modeling and Analysis Based on Causal Bayesian Network: A Case Study

Industrial Engineering Journal

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Risk Modeling and Analysis Based on Causal Bayesian Network: A Case Study

1. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China; 2. School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;3. Beijing Vibroflotation Engineering CO., LTD., Beijing 100102, China;4. Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering, Pennsylvania State University Park, PA, US, 16802

Online:2016-10-31 Published:2017-02-21

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to validate the CBNbased RMA method proposed in article [1], four common patterns are first introduced to simplify the structure modeling of the method, which will reduce the effort of experts judgement in subsequent parameter modeling, and then the improved method is applied in risk analysis of NeelumJhelum hydropower station tunneling project in Pakistan. As a result, the contractors control effectively the project risks and obtain much more revenue than expected. This case shows that improved CBNbased RMA method has easy operability and will significantly enhance the efficiency of engineering risk management.

Key words: engineering risk management, causal Bayesian network, tunneling project

YANG Min1, WANG Zhuwei2, WANG Yanmei3, CHEN Xu4. Risk Modeling and Analysis Based on Causal Bayesian Network: A Case Study[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal .

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Risk Modeling and Analysis Based on Causal Bayesian Network: A Case Study

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