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30 December 2017, Volume 20 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Investment Profits of a Dual Role Subject Based on the Operator-Investor in PPP Projects LIU Jicai, LIU Jiaqi 2017, 20 (6):  1-8.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3202 Abstract ( 799 )   PDF (337KB) ( 5726 )   Save In Public-private partnerships (PPP) project, when operators act an investor by investing in the project, the scenarios of dual-role subject will be formed. However, there exists risk of speculation of the dual-role subject, which can result in serious conflicts of interest between pure-investors and the dual-role subject. Therefore, in order to discuss the dual-role subjects' optimal investment decision and profit under the scenario that operator becomes an investor, and reduce the risk of dual-role subjects' speculation in PPP project, the structure of investment profits and speculation behavior of the operators in the PPP project are analyzed based on the game theory. Meanwhile, the investment income models of operators are constructed under the four decision combinations. Then, the maximum benefit is analyzed based on different decision situations. Combining with a numerical analysis, it is concluded that the operator becoming an investor and exerting efforts and avoiding speculation can maximize the return on investment of private assets. Meanwhile, the results show that project company should establish dynamic contract price to reduce the risk of operators' opportunistic behavior. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Study of Project Risk Correlation Network of Real Estate Development Project Based on SNA LI Yanyong, WANG Lei, QIAN Chen, SUN Tao 2017, 20 (6):  9-15,38.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-2104 Abstract ( 758 )   PDF (1009KB) ( 5752 )   Save The current research on risk correlation focuses on the overall impact of the risk factor system on project such as cost and quality. While the identification and analysis of different kinds of risks in the system is insufficient to support the development of control measures, the network formed by the risk factors and their relationships can be used to express the risk factor system. According to the network characteristics, risk factors can be divided into aggregation risk, trigger risk, path risk and cycle growth risk. First, based on the indexes such as in degree, out degree and reachability matrix in the social network analysis (SNA) method, the above risks are identified. Then, according to the characteristics of each kind of risks, corresponding control measures are put forward. Finally, a real estate development project is taken as an example to show the analysis process of risk correlation network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

An Assessment of Human Stampede Risk in Outdoor Public Places Based on FANP LIU Sishi, XIE Kefan, CAO Qing 2017, 20 (6):  16-21.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3204 Abstract ( 843 )   PDF (399KB) ( 5925 )   Save To assess the human stampede risk in outdoor public places, the triggering factors of human stampede are summarized with theoretical analysis and case study. The Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) approach is employed to assess human stampede risk in outdoor public places. Based on the questionnaires and experts' assessment, the super matrix, weighted super matrix and limit matrix are computed by the Super Decision (SD) software. As is shown in the results of the model, the facility factor (O1), field obstacle (O2) and crowd density (I1) show significant effect on the human stampede risk, the comprehensive evaluation values of them are respectively 0.128, 0.116, and 0.108. An overall risk rating of human stampede risk is then obtained from calculating and reordering the comprehensive evaluation values. Then, based on calculation sample from real place photographed video, the risk metric of human stampede is obtained. References | Related Articles | Metrics

An Optimization Model of Distribution Network Considering Transshipment and Risk of Disruptions YUAN Piye, SONG Naixu, WAN Peng, XIE Yawen 2017, 20 (6):  22-30.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-2225 Abstract ( 973 )   PDF (518KB) ( 6100 )   Save Considering distribution risks and transshipment in the process of Distribution Network Design, a nonlinear 0-1 integer programming location-inventory model is established, and a genetic algorithm is designed to solve it. Four solutions (without disruption risk and transshipment, considering only the transshipment, the disruption risk, and both transshipment and disruption risk) of distribution network design are studied and it is shown that at the stage of distribution network design, considering transshipment can significantly reduce the system operation cost, and increase income; considering disruption risks can significantly reduce the cost of emergency; and transshipment will be also contributing under disruption risks and the result will be the best. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Cross-Chain Collaboration Model of Cluster Community Elderly Service Supply Chain Based on System Dynamics SHI Yuan, CAO Lei, ZHANG Zhiyong, ZHANG Ting 2017, 20 (6):  31-38.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3220 Abstract ( 979 )   PDF (510KB) ( 5888 )   Save In order to solve the problems of low resource utilization rate and imbalance of supply and demand for community elderly service supply chain, a single community elderly service supply chain model and a cross-chain collaboration model of community elderly service supply chain are built based on the method of system dynamics. Then selecting the total resource amount and balance ratio of supply and demand as the evaluation indexes, a comparative simulation is made. The simulation results show that compared with the community elderly service supply chain, the cross-chain collaboration model of cluster community elderly service supply chain can on the one hand reduce the total resource amount and maximum fluctuation of each supply chain in cluster system by 10% and 40%, and on the other hand the cross-chain collaboration model of cluster community elderly service supply chain can increase the balance ratio of supply and demand by 15%, and reduce the amplitude of fluctuation by 27%. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Study of the Stability of Supply Chain with Predator-Prey Model HU Hui, MA Hai, LI Bo, ZHAO Jiao 2017, 20 (6):  39-46.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3135 Abstract ( 974 )   PDF (462KB) ( 6077 )   Save Stability of the supply chain has become an important research area in supply chain. To study the interactive mechanism between disruption and supply chain, a Predator-Prey Model of disruption and supply chain is built based on supply chain resilience coefficient and disruption interference coefficient, representing the two states of disruptions and supply chain. Then the equilibrium points are found and interdependent correlation of disruption and supply chain is analyzed, and the stability of supply chain under disruption simulated by Matlab. The results show that, in order to ensure the stability of the supply chain when the equilibrium point P4 is reached, the resilience coefficient of the supply chain should be σ1> 1 and approaching 2, and the disturbance coefficient of the disruption should be σ2> 1 and gradually approaching 1. When the equilibrium point P2 is reached, the resilience coefficient of the supply chain should be σ1> 0 and approaching 2, and the disturbance coefficient of the disruption should be 0< σ2< 1 and gradually approaching 0. The model is effective to formulate the interdependent correlation between disruption and the stability of supply chain. The exploration is meaningful to enrich the modeling methodology of supply chain disruption, and it is also significant to prevent and handle the disruption effectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Research on the Pricing Strategy of Closed-Loop Supply Chain under Two Stages LIANG Xiaohao, HUANG Zuqing, MENG Lijun, YANG Yuxiang 2017, 20 (6):  47-55.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-4160 Abstract ( 907 )   PDF (466KB) ( 5908 )   Save With an enhanced awareness of concepts such as environmental protection and sustainable development, recycling has aroused the attention of enterprises and scholars. Because of the difference between the acceptance of re-manufactured products and the popularity of new products, these two products' pricing processes are different. It is assumed that the manufacturer only produces new products in the first stage, and both new products and re-manufactured products in the second stage. Under this assumption, the pricing decisions about system of supply chain and reverse supply chain between the manufacturer and the retailer are studied under the different market situations. The results show that, in the second stage, sale prices of new and re-manufactured products are both lower than those of only new products. When the former is chosen, it will obtain more benefits. Furthermore, the retailer will do better when more money is paid for waste products. And the manufacturer's wholesale price is determined by the cost of new products, recycled products and recycling prices. The study further shows that the overall supply chain will obtain maximal profits when the retailer dominates the market, and the overall supply chain will obtain minimum profits when manufacturer dominates the market. However, when the authority between the two is not obvious, the overall supply chain profits will be in the middle. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Research on Aviation Maintenance Industry Scheduling Problem Based on MO2TOS Framework HAO Chunfeng, DING Jinxiang, LUAN Shichao 2017, 20 (6):  56-64.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-2252 Abstract ( 675 )   PDF (668KB) ( 5995 )   Save Compared with the traditional manufacturing system, several key characteristics make MRO(maintenance, repair and overhaul) scheduling problem different and difficult to handle, such as Disassembly-Repair-Assembly three-level structure, Material matching requirements, Stochastic routings and Variable processing times. On the basis of a detailed analysis of the MRO scheduling problem, a mixed integer linear programming model to minimize the expected total weighted tardiness is presented. Since this problem is NP-hard, a practical way of achieving good solutions is to develop effective simulation optimization algorithms. Multi-fidelity models, including one which is stochastic and time-consuming, are developed based on MO2TOS(multi-fidelity oftimization with ordinal transformation and optimal sampling) framework to solve this problem. Instead of directly running the high-fidelity model, a deterministic low-fidelity model is provided for OT(ordinal transformation) stage. Finally, the characteristics of different algorithms are analyzed by the numerical examples based on the practical background. References | Related Articles | Metrics

An Optimization Method of the TCQ in a Rocket Development Project by Using GERT Network and Considering Market Prospect CAO Shuai, ZHU Jianjun, LIN Song, YU Liang 2017, 20 (6):  65-76.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3115 Abstract ( 860 )   PDF (839KB) ( 5776 )   Save Aiming at management optimization of a multistage development project and considering market prospect for a launch vehicle, a multistage GERT network model is established based on the process of rocket development. The project activity is described in graphical way, and extending the traditional analytic algorithm of GERT network by analyzing the interaction between time, cost and quality in the process of rocket development (TCQ). In view of the possibility of market prospect, a multistage optimization model of comprehensive prospect value is constructed by combining the multistage GERT network model and Prospect theory. Finally, taking a rocket development project as an example, the specific implementation steps of the method are described and the result shows that the optimization adjustment of TCQ in the rocket development project can bring greater prospect value to the project activities than before. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Method of Constructing Sequence of Software Protection Technologies Based on Petri Net with Inhibitor Arcs SU Qing, HE Fan, WU Naiqi 2017, 20 (6):  77-83.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-4137 Abstract ( 781 )   PDF (981KB) ( 5992 )   Save A method is proposed to find a suitable sequence of software protection technologies with various dependency relationships existing among each other in software protection domain by Petri net with inhibitor arcs. Firstly, all dependency relationships are divided into four categories－pre/post-requirements and pre/post-prohibitions and Petri net model constructed for each relationship. Secondly, a composite model is built according to the specific software protection techniques to be used and the reachable marking map drawn. Thirdly, the required marking in reachable marking map is found and the sequence of transitions, which makes Petri net change from initial marking to the required marking, is the suitable sequence of software protection technologies. At last, the effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by experiments. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Modeling Robotic Cell and Analyzing the Influences of Stochastic Factors XIE Jieming, MAO Ning, CHEN Qingxin 2017, 20 (6):  84-89,95.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-1009 Abstract ( 852 )   PDF (1112KB) ( 6060 )   Save To analyze the influence that random factors of robotic cell's capabilities produce on system performance, a simulation model is established on the platform of simulation software eM-Plant for a classic robotic manufacturing cell and a series of experiments have been carried out. The results show that the systematic properties of the robotic cell will decline with the influence of random parameters such as arriving interval of workpiece, but it declines through changing system configuration methods such as inputting buffer's capacity. It is concluded that systematic capacity indexes of robotic manufacturing cell with indeterminate step can be improved through adjusting configuration parameters. References | Related Articles | Metrics

A Study of Physiological Evaluation Method of Cybersickness YU Yongweijian, ZHOU Ronggang 2017, 20 (6):  90-95.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-1168 Abstract ( 820 )   PDF (388KB) ( 5927 )   Save A new physiological evaluation method of cybersickness was developed through one-way repeated measures design ANOVA method for the lack of experimental research on physiological evaluation method of motion sickness. Experimental results suggested that 1) the effect of different experimental situations on heart rate(P<0.05) and skin conductance (P<0.05) was significant, 2) the effect of non-virtual reality factors on skin conductance was significant (P<0.05). Heart rate is appropriate as a physiological index to evaluate cybersickness and will significantly increase when becoming symptomatic, while skin conductance and respiration rate are not. Besides, all the three physiological indexes are not appropriate to evaluate the degree of cybersickness. References | Related Articles | Metrics

An Ergonomic Analysis Based on Jack Virtual Simulation Technology LAN Shuang 2017, 20 (6):  96-100.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-1215 Abstract ( 1357 )   PDF (738KB) ( 6322 )   Save The basic flow of human factor ergonomic analysis is proposed in order to improve the efficiency and reliability of the man-machine system optimization based on the characteristics and key technologies of virtual simulation software Jack. An empirical analysis method is adopted to optimally design double-layer bed in students' dormitory of Harbin University of Commerce, and the effect is improved prominently. On this basis, the difficulties of adopting Jack for human factor ergonomic analysis are summarized. Corresponding solutions are proposed. The proposed human factory ergonomic analysis concepts and skills have stronger maneuverability, which can be widely used in design, analysis and evaluation of man-machine systems. References | Related Articles | Metrics