基于LSTM的供应链全生命周期碳足迹测度与预测研究

    Research on Measuring and Predicting the Carbon Footprint of Supply Chain Throughout its Life Cycle Based on LSTM

    • 摘要: 碳足迹测量与估计是低碳供应链评估的重要指标,目前缺乏统一的碳足迹衡量标准与界限,同时传统的碳足迹测量方法需要大量的计算成本。因此,提出一种先核算后预测的两阶段全生命周期碳足迹估算方法。在第1阶段,电网物资供应链被划分为5个阶段,并构建相应的测算模型,实现对碳足迹的定量描述与评估;在第2阶段,以电缆产品作为碳源,构建基于长短时记忆神经网络(long short-term memory neural network,LSTM)的供应链全生命周期碳排放量预测模型。基于2020 ~ 2023年电网供应链的碳足迹管理数据进行了数值实验,预测准确率为99.3%。通过与BP神经网络和GABP神经网络构建的模型对比,证明模型的准确性与优越性,实现对碳足迹的有效核算与预测。

       

      Abstract: Carbon footprint measurement and estimation are important indicators for low-carbon supply chain assessment, but currently there is a lack of unified carbon footprint measurement standards and boundaries, and traditional carbon footprint measurement methods require significant computational costs. Therefore, a two-stage full lifecycle carbon footprint estimation method that calculates first and predicts later has been proposed. In the first stage, the power grid material supply chain is divided into five stages, and corresponding calculation models are constructed to achieve quantitative description and evaluation of carbon footprint; In the second stage, a supply chain lifecycle carbon emission prediction model based on long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) was constructed using cable products as carbon sources. Finally, numerical experiments were conducted based on carbon footprint management data of the power grid supply chain from 2020 to 2023, with a prediction accuracy of 99.3%. By comparing the models constructed with BP neural network and GABP neural network, the accuracy and superiority of the models have been demonstrated, achieving effective accounting and prediction of carbon footprint.

       

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