基于CNN-GA-XGBoost负荷预测的中央空调冷水机组数字孪生系统研究

    A Digital Twin System for Central Air Conditioning Chiller Units Based on CNN-GA-XGBoost Load Forecasting

    • 摘要: 为满足建筑物末端的制冷需求,中央空调冷水系统长期在部分负荷下运行,这导致能源消耗较高。对中央空调冷水机组的负荷预测有利于节能改造以达到负荷最优。针对冷水系统存在的错综复杂交互关系和多变量等难以精确预测的问题,提出一种基于卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)—遗传算法(genetic algorithm, GA)—极端梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting, XGBoost)的冷水机组数字孪生体预测模型。首先利用历史数据训练CNN-GA-XGBoost预测模型;然后将训练好的模型通过应用程序接口(application program interface,API)的方式连接到数字孪生体系统中进行实时预测;最后在数字孪生系统中展示预测结果。结果表明,所提的方法模型评估指标决定系数达到0.995, 平均绝对百分比误差为0.82,均方根误差为2.22。数字孪生体预测模型有效地连接了物理实体和数据驱动,能够实现建筑物空调负荷的精准预测,并且所提预测方法相较于其他模型具有更高的精度和更好的泛化性。

       

      Abstract: Central air conditioning chiller systems often operate with partial load to meet the cooling demand at building terminals, leading to high energy consumption. Load forecasting for central air conditioning chiller units is beneficial for energy-saving renovations to reach the optimal load conditions. A prediction model for the digital twin of chiller units is proposed based on convolutional neural networks (CNN), genetic algorithm (GA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to cope with the complexities of interactions and multi-variables in a chilled water system. First, the CNN-GA-XGBoost model is trained with historical data. Subsequently, the trained model is integrated into the digital twin system through an application programming interface (API) for real-time predictions. Finally, the predicted results are visualized within the digital twin system. Results demonstrate a decision coefficient of evaluated indicators of 0.995 by the proposed method, with an mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.82 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.22. The digital twin prediction model effectively bridges physical entities and data-driven approaches, enabling accurate predictions of building air conditioning loads. Furthermore, the proposed prediction method demonstrates higher accuracy and better generalization compared with other models.

       

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