供应链中断和需求不确定下的制造业多级供应链决策优化

    Optimization of Multi-level Supply Chain Decisions in Manufacturing under Supply Chain Disruptions and Demand Uncertainty

    • 摘要: 在全球经济一体化的背景下,优化多级供应链网络以减少运营延迟并应对中断和需求不确定性至关重要。传统方法往往分别处理供应链中断和需求不确定性这两类问题,导致解决方案的碎片化。本文提出一种多目标决策模型,构建一个三级供应链网络模型,并采用实数编码遗传算法进行优化。该算法结合了微观精准与宏观灵活性,能够在多目标优化中实现成本最小化和服务水平最大化。模型考虑供应链中断的随机性,采用几何分布模拟中断间隔时间,并通过遗传算法进行动态优化,以适应市场和供应条件的变化。实验结果表明,经过多次仿真验证,该模型平均在4.9 s内能够实现高效决策,展示了强大的鲁棒性和适应性。即使在各种参数变化的情况下,模型依然能够维持优化性能。与传统的线性规划、混合整数规划和动态规划模型相比,该模型在决策速度、成本控制和服务水平方面均表现优异,尤其在应对供应链中断和需求不确定性方面,提供了更为灵活和高效的解决方案。

       

      Abstract: In the context of global economic integration, optimizing multi-level supply chain networks to reduce operational delays and address disruptions and demand uncertainty is crucial. Traditional methods often handle supply chain disruptions and demand uncertainty separately, leading to fragmented solutions. This study proposes a multi-objective decision-making model to address the problem. A three-level supply chain network model is established and optimized using a real-coded genetic algorithm. This algorithm combines micro-precision with macro-flexibility to minimize cost and maximize service levels in multi-objective optimization. Specifically, the model considers the randomness of supply chain disruptions, using a geometric distribution to simulate the interval time between disruptions, and dynamically optimizes through the genetic algorithm to adapt to changes in market and supply conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that, after multiple simulation verifications, the model can achieve efficient decision-making in an average of 4.9 seconds, showcasing strong robustness and adaptability. Even with various parameter changes, the model maintains its optimization performance. Compared to traditional linear programming, mixed-integer programming, and dynamic programming models, this model excels in decision-making speed, cost control, and service levels, offering a more flexible and efficient solution for addressing supply chain disruptions and demand uncertainty.

       

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