基于自适应Q学习的间歇性备品备件需求预测

    Adaptive Q-Learning-Based Demand Forecasting for Intermittent Spare Parts

    • 摘要: 间歇性备件具有高价值、需求中断和关键性等特点。有效的需求预测有助于优化库存管理,确保设备得以及时维护,从而保持其正常运行所需的可靠性和安全性。因此,本文提出一种基于自适应Q学习的间歇性备件需求预测方法。首先利用相似度指标和K-means对备件需求数据进行预处理和聚类;其次,采用Q学习算法动态调整聚类后的备件类别与预测模型的匹配关系,为每类数据自适应匹配预测模型,以期达到更好的预测精度;最后,采用间歇性备件数据集对所提方法进行验证。结果表明:自适应Q学习可以显著降低备件预测误差,且EnrmseEmaeEmase等3个指标均低于Croston、ARIMA、Deep Renewal Exact等6种对比模型,各类别的均值分别为8.921 0、1.485 6、0.395 0。因此,所提出的自适应Q学习方法的预测精度准确且结果可靠,能够适用于间歇性备件的需求预测。

       

      Abstract: Intermittent spare parts are characterized by high value,demand disruption and criticality. Effective demand forecasting helps optimize inventory management, ensuring timely maintenance of equipment to maintain the reliability and safety required for normal operation. Therefore, a self-adaptive forecasting method for intermittent spare parts based on adaptive Q-learning is proposed. Firstly, this method preprocesses and clusters spare parts demand data using similarity metrics and K-means. Secondly, it dynamically adjusts the matching relationship between the clustered spare parts categories and forecasting models using the Q learning algorithm, adapting the forecasting model for each category of data to achieve better forecasting accuracy. Finally, the method is validated using a dataset of intermittent spare parts. The results show that adaptive Q-learning can significantly reduce spare parts forecasting errors, with Enrmse, Emae, and Emase metrics all lower than six other comparison models including Croston, ARIMA, and Deep Renewal Exact, with mean values of 8.921 0, 1.485 6, and 0.395 0 respectively for each category. Therefore, the proposed adaptive Q-learning method provides accurate and reliable forecasting accuracy and applies to intermittent spare parts demand forecasting.

       

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