基于自适应Q学习的间歇性备品备件需求预测

    Adaptive Q-learning-based Demand Forecasting for Intermittent Spare Parts

    • 摘要: 间歇性备件具有高价值、需求中断和关键性等特点。有效的需求预测有助于优化库存管理,确保设备得以及时维护,从而保持其正常运行所需的可靠性和安全性。因此,本文提出一种基于自适应Q学习的间歇性备件需求预测方法。首先利用相似度指标和K-means对备件需求数据进行预处理和聚类;其次,采用Q学习算法动态调整聚类后的备件类别与预测模型的匹配关系,为每类数据自适应匹配预测模型,以期达到更好的预测精度;最后,采用间歇性备件数据集对所提方法进行验证。结果表明:自适应Q学习可以显著降低备件预测误差,且EnrmseEmaeEmase等3个指标均低于Croston、ARIMA、Deep Renewal Exact等6种对比模型,各类别的均值分别为8.921 0、1.485 6、0.395 0。因此,所提出的自适应Q学习方法的预测精度准确且结果可靠,能够用于间歇性备件的需求预测。

       

      Abstract: Intermittent spare parts are typically characterized by high value, demand intermittency, and critical importance. Accurate demand forecasting is essential for optimizing inventory management, ensuring timely maintenance, and maintaining the reliability and safety required for normal operation. To address this issue, an adaptive Q-learning-based demand forecasting method for intermittent spare parts is proposed. First, similarity metrics and K-means clustering are used to preprocess and cluster the demand data. Then, a Q-learning algorithm is adopted to dynamically adjust the matching relationship between the spare parts clusters and forecasting models, enabling adaptive model selection to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using a dataset of intermittent spare parts. Results show that the adaptive Q-learning can significantly reduce the forecasting errors for spare parts, with three evaluation metrics Enrmse, Emae, and Emase all being lower than those using six benchmark models, including Croston, ARIMA, and Deep Renewal Exact. The average values across the three metrics are 8.921 0, 1.485 6, and 0.395 0, respectively. These findings demonstrate that the proposed adaptive Q-learning method provides accurate and reliable forecasting results and is well-suited for predicting the demand of intermittent spare parts.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回