需求数据删失下的分布鲁棒报童定价及库存联合决策

    Research on Distributionally Robust Newsboy Pricing and Inventory Joint Decision with Censored Demand Data

    • 摘要: 为研究需求信息删失对零售商最优决策问题的影响,本文以包含库存持有成本和缺货惩罚成本在内的总成本最小化为目标,建立了一个数据驱动的分布鲁棒报童定价和库存决策模型。首先,将需求删失信息引入分布不确定集,运用Cox回归估计删失需求以确定需求不确定集参数,并将原问题转化为对偶问题,利用Rsome鲁棒优化分析求解对偶模型。然后,通过随机数值实验,在不同参数水平下研究本文提出的分布鲁棒优化方法的效率。结果表明,本文方法相较于常见优化算法(鲁棒优化和随机优化),平均节约成本23.74%和16.32%,且本文方法与理论最优情形下的平均成本差距缩小为21.41%。最后,基于一个真实案例数据的研究,进一步验证了本文分布鲁棒优化方法的有效性。

       

      Abstract: In order to study the impact of censored demand information on retailers' optimal decision-making, a data-driven distributionally robust newsboy pricing and inventory joint decision model is established with the objective of minimizing the total cost including inventory holding costs and stockout penalty cost. Firstly, the censored demand information is introduced into the distribution uncertainty set, and Cox regression is used to estimate the censored value to compute the parameter of the demand uncertainty set. The original problem is transformed into a dual problem and solved by using Rsome analysis tool. Then, the efficiency of the distributionally robust optimization method proposed in this paper is studied at different parameter levels through random numerical experiments. The results show that compared with the common optimization algorithms (robust optimization and stochastic optimization), the proposed method saves an average cost of 23.74% and 16.32%, respectively, and the average cost difference between the proposed method and the theoretical optimal case is narrowed to 21.41%. Finally, the effectiveness of the distributionally robust optimization method proposed are further verified based on a real case data.

       

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