基于概率分析和数据驱动的高速公路车辆速度预测方法

    A Probability-based and Data-Driven Approach for Highway Vehicle Speed Forecasting

    • 摘要: 为改善高速公路车辆速度预测过程中因数据非正态分布而造成的预测误差,提出一种深度时间卷积网络(deep temporal convolutional network, DeepTCN)和Copula理论相结合的混合概率性预测方法。为给出考虑多个特征的确定性预测,建立了DeepTCN框架。根据DeepTCN得到的预测结果,基于预测误差的条件概率分布来拟合适当的Copula函数。通过误差补偿得到概率性预测结果。利用在广州市机场高速收集的实际交通数据来验证所提出的混合方法的有效性。数据分析与实验结果表明,实际数据反映出交通流确实存在高度随机性,而这种随机性在低车辆密度与高车辆密度时相对较小,在中等密度时相对较大;与现有的各种方法相比,DeepTCN在处理长时间序列信息时存在优越性,适用于高速公路车辆速度预测场景;结合Copula函数可以在一定程度上补偿数据随机性带来的预测误差,进一步提高预测精度。

       

      Abstract: To cope with the forecast errors caused by non-normal distributions of data in the process of forecasting vehicle speed on highways, this paper proposes a probabilistic forecasting method, which is a hybrid of deep temporal convolutional networks (DeepTCN) and Copula theory. DeepTCN is established first to give a deterministic forecast considering multiple features. Then, an appropriate Copula function is fitted based on the conditional probability distribution of prediction errors according to the obtained forecasts by DeepTCN. Finally, probabilistic results are provided by error compensation. Real traffic data collected on a highway road in Guangzhou, China are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method. Data analysis and experimental results show that real-world data reflects significant randomness in traffic flows, with this randomness being relatively mild at both low and high vehicle densities, but more evident at medium densities; DeepTCN demonstrates superior performance in handling long-term time series information compared with various existing methods, making it well-suited for highway vehicle speed forecasting; by incorporating Copula functions, it can compensate for forecast errors caused by data randomness to some extent, further improving forecast accuracy.

       

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