期权契约下考虑风险规避的供应链融资与定价决策

    Financing and Pricing Decisions in A Supply Chain with Risk-aversion under Option Contract

    • 摘要: 在资金约束且风险规避的零售商与供应商构成的二级供应链中,利用条件风险值(conditional value-at-risk, CVaR)刻画零售商风险规避特征,构建博弈模型,研究在供应商信用担保下采用银行贷款与延迟付款这两种融资方式时的期权定价与零售商最优订购决策,探究零售商的融资选择,分析零售商的风险规避程度与融资利率对均衡决策的影响。理论结果表明,零售商的风险规避程度影响其融资选择。当风险规避系数小于某一临界值时,零售商会选择部分信用贷款;当风险规避系数大于某一临界值时,零售商会选择延迟支付。两种融资模式下的最优期权定价与最优订购量均随风险规避系数的上升而上升;零售商的CVaR随银行贷款利率的上升而下降,与延迟支付贷款利率无关。此外,零售商的风险规避须在一定范围内,否则供应链无法持续运营。最后,通过数值分析论证了理论结果。

       

      Abstract: Under the bank loan with credit guarantee provided by supplier and delay payment, in a two-level supply chain comprised of a capital-constrained retailer with risk-aversion and a supplier, by adopted the CVaR (conditional value at risk) to characterize the retailer’s risk aversion and constructed the game model, the option pricing of supplier and the optimal ordering decisions of retailer are studied. The choice of financing mode for the retailer is explored, and the impact of the retailer’s risk-aversion degree and the financing interest rate on the equilibrium decision is analyzed. The results show that the retailer’s risk-aversion degree affects the selection of financing modes, i.e. if the risk-aversion coefficient is less than a certain threshold point, the retailer will choose partial credit loan, otherwise, the retailer will choose the delay payment. The optimal option pricing and optimal ordering quantity increase with the increases of risk-aversion coefficient under the two financing modes. The CVaR of the retailer decreases with the increase of bank loan interest rate, while shows a trend of first rising and then falling with the increase of delayed payment interest rate. In addition, the retailer's risk aversion must be within a certain range, otherwise, the supply chain operation cannot be sustainable. Finally, the theoretical results are demonstrated by numerical analysis.

       

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