面向需求波动与中断风险的电网鲁棒库存优化研究

    Research on Robust Inventory Optimization for Power Grids Facing Demand Fluctuations and Disruption Risks

    • 摘要: 随着全球电力需求增长,电网供应链管理,尤其是在需求波动和供应中断风险方面,面临着日益严峻的挑战。本研究提出了一种基于分布鲁棒优化(distributionally robust optimization, DRO)的电网供应链库存管理模型,将本地和异地两个生产工厂与多个配电站整合为统一供应网络,采用基于矩的模糊集描述需求扰动,引入期望约束表征供应中断风险,并提出面向目标的服务水平概念以平衡成本和服务质量。模型构建了一个两阶段决策框架:第1阶段确定生产计划和本地运输策略;第2阶段在需求和生产状态实现后,调整异地运输策略和服务水平违约量。通过列生成算法求解该模型,数值实验表明,与确定性模型、样本平均近似模型和鲁棒优化模型相比,本研究提出的DRO模型在总成本和服务水平稳定性方面均具有显著优势。在实际案例验证中,该模型在不同需求特征的配电站中均表现出良好的适应性,为电网供应链的库存管理提供了有效的决策支持工具。

       

      Abstract: As global electricity demand grows, power grid supply chain management faces increasing challenges, particularly in demand fluctuations and supply disruption risks. This study proposes a DRO (distributionally robust optimization)-based inventory management model for power grid supply chains. The model innovatively integrates two production plants (local and remote) with multiple distribution stations into a unified supply network, employs moment-based ambiguity sets to describe demand disturbances, introduces expected constraints to characterize supply disruption risks, and proposes a goal-oriented service level concept to balance cost and service quality. A two-stage decision framework is constructed: the first stage determines production plans and local transportation strategies, while the second stage adjusts remote transportation strategies and service level shortfalls after demand and production conditions are realized. Using a column generation algorithm, numerical experiments demonstrate that compared to deterministic, sample average approximation, and robust optimization models, the proposed DRO model shows significant advantages in total cost and service level stability. Case study validation confirms the model's adaptability across distribution stations with varying demand characteristics, providing an effective decision support tool for power grid supply chain inventory management.

       

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