基于GNB模型的两代创新产品动态定价

    Research on Pricing Strategies of Two-Generation Innovative Products Based on GNB Model

    • 摘要: 创新产品的快速升级使得迭代创新产品的定价策略必须考虑上一代产品的销售影响。本文在前人提出的迭代产品需求模型(generalized Norton-Bass, GNB)基础上,引入供给方产品产能约束、需求方消费者行为因素等,构建更加贴近企业实践的决策场景。进而,以多代产品总利润为决策目标,研究企业的多代产品动态定价问题。鉴于研究问题难以采用传统数学建模的求解思路,通过构建研究问题的系统动力学模型,采用计算机仿真方法解决两代创新产品动态定价难题。研究结果不仅解释了当前智能手机巨头企业的创新产品动态定价策略,还量化了产能约束和降价时机对两代产品的上市价格和折扣价格的影响。同时,研究结果量化了消费者之间的口碑传播对创新产品销售数量和销售利润的正面影响;从消费者行为因素视角,量化了创新产品口碑营销中的营销努力对两代产品的动态定价影响。

       

      Abstract: The rapid upgrading of innovative products asks that pricing strategies for next-generation innovative products must take its impact of previous generation products into consideration. Based on multi-generation innovative product Bass model, known as GNB model, several key factors observed from practice e.g., production capaticy and consumer behavior, are introduced into the model. Therefore, the extended model offers a better representation of real-world decision problems. Furthermore, dynamic pricing strategies are explored to maximize the net profit of multi-generation products. Seeing that traditional mathematical modeling approaches struggle to model and solve this complicated pricing problem, system dynamics model of the problem is employed instead. Then, following simulation based optimization methodology, this challenging problem is solved by simulation data. The results not only validate the pricing practices of two smartphone giants- two innovative producers, but also provide management insights for dynamic pricing strategies from perspectives of production capacity, time to discount products, etc. Moreover, the positive impact of word-of-mouth spreading on sales and profit of multi-generation products are quantified from simulation results. Additionally, sales efforts for consumer behavior in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns are analyzed.

       

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