面向多阶段任务系统的加速退化试验方案

    Accelerated Degradation Test Planning for Multi-stage Mission Systems

    • 摘要: 针对多阶段任务系统的可靠性评估需求,提出一种基于维纳退化模型的加速退化试验优化设计方法。通过建立多阶段任务成功概率模型,分析各阶段负载水平差异性与持续时长非对称性的联合效应,并采用大样本近似方法推导参数估计渐近方差作为优化目标,求解试验方案最优组合。数值案例分析表明,高负载阶段对试验资源分配具有主导性影响,其非线性退化特性要求将更多试验元件分配至高应力组以捕捉快速退化特征;阶段时长缩短导致参数估计方差增大,需通过增加高应力组资源占比补偿数据不足。进一步提出两类折衷规则,通过相对效率值及比值量化分析发现,任务复杂度与效率损失呈正相关,资源倾斜策略在精度与约束间更优,折衷方案可为工程实践提供次优决策依据。

       

      Abstract: To address the reliability assessment requirements of multi-stage mission systems, this study proposes an optimal design framework for accelerated degradation testing based on the Wiener degradation model. A mission success probability model is established to analyze the joint effects of load heterogeneity and temporal asymmetry across mission stages. Utilizing the large-sample approximation method, the asymptotic variance of parameter estimation is derived as the optimization objective to determine the optimal test plan. Numerical case studies reveal that high-stress stages dominate resource allocation due to their nonlinear degradation characteristics, necessitating increased component allocation to capture rapid degradation patterns. Reduced stage duration amplifies estimation variance, which is mitigated by proportionally enhancing high-stress group resources. Two compromise rules are further proposed, and quantitative analyses using relative efficiency metrics demonstrate a positive correlation between mission complexity and efficiency loss. The resource-prioritization strategy achieves superior balance between estimation accuracy and practical constraints, providing actionable suboptimal solutions for engineering applications.

       

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