碳配额交易下智能制造系统的微分博弈

    Differential Game Research of Intelligent Manufacturing System under Carbon Quota Trading

    • 摘要: 研究旨在讨论碳配额交易政策下智能制造系统的最优决策与协同机制,以揭示政府补贴、碳配额交易价格以及消费者低碳偏好对企业行为与系统绩效的影响。为此,考虑政府的碳配额交易政策以及消费者低碳的偏好,基于动态分析框架构建由制造商、零售商及政府组成的三方微分博弈模型,对比分析分散决策、零售商短视及集中决策模式下的均衡策略。通过求解及数值仿真发现如下。1)集中决策模式下,低碳商誉及智能制造系统各成员收益显著高于分散或短视情形,是实现长期可持续发展的最优模式;若以短期收益为决策目标则更倾向于分散决策。2)碳排放系数对产品定价具有显著正向影响,但对智能制造补贴水平、制造商研发强度、零售商营销投入、低碳商誉、智能制造产品需求以及均衡收益产生负向作用。3)碳配额交易价格和消费者低碳偏好系数抑制企业研发与营销投入,但会促进产品价格提升;而碳配额交易价格与智能制造技术补贴水平正相关,与消费者低碳偏好系数负相关。区别于以往仅关注单一政策情境的研究,此次研究考虑政策与市场双重机制,为政府制定差异化低碳政策与市场机制协同下的智能制造系统优化策略提供了理论依据与管理启示。

       

      Abstract: This study investigates the optimal decision-making and coordination mechanisms of intelligent manufacturing systems under a carbon-quota trading policy, revealing how government subsidies, carbon-quota prices, and consumers′ low-carbon preferences affect firms′ behavior and system performance. To this end, considering both the government′s carbon-quota trading policy and consumers′ low-carbon preferences, a dynamic analytical framework is established to construct a tripartite differential-game model involving a manufacturer, a retailer, and the government. The equilibrium strategies are compared under three decision modes: decentralized, retailer-myopic, and centralized. Analytical and simulation results show as follows: 1)Under centralized decision-making, the steady-state level of low-carbon goodwill and the payoffs of all system members are significantly higher than those under decentralized or myopic modes, making it the optimal strategy for achieving long-term sustainable development; when short-term profit is prioritized, decentralized decision-making is preferred. 2)The carbon-emission coefficient has a significant positive effect on product pricing but negative effects on the subsidy level,manufacturer′s R&D intensity, retailer's marketing effort, low-carbon goodwill, product demand, and equilibrium payoffs. 3)Both carbon-quota trading prices and consumers′ low-carbon preferences reduce firms′ R&D and marketing investments while increasing product prices; moreover, the carbon-quota trading price is positively related to the level of intelligent-manufacturing subsidies but negatively related to consumers′ low-carbon preferences. Unlike previous studies that focus only on a single policy scenario, this study integrates policy and market mechanisms, providing theoretical and managerial implications for optimizing intelligent manufacturing systems under coordinated low-carbon policies.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回