数字孪生驱动的城市应急配送动态优化

    Digital Twin-Driven Dynamic Optimization Research for Urban Emergency Distribution System

    • 摘要: 突发灾害情景下城市应急物流系统面临需求动态演变、路网通行能力实时波动及库存资源受限等多重挑战,传统静态优化方法难以有效应对环境不确定性。针对上述问题,提出一种数字孪生驱动的应急配送动态优化方法,构建“数字孪生−优化模型−强化学习”三位一体决策框架。该方法包含3个核心组件:一是城市应急物流数字孪生系统架构,通过多源数据融合实现物理系统状态的实时感知与虚拟映射;二是考虑库存动态约束的多周期应急配送调度模型,引入库存平衡方程建立配送决策与仓储状态的跨期耦合关系,以最小化加权响应时间为优化目标;三是基于深度Q网络的自适应决策算法,通过状态特征筛选与动作离散化策略降低求解复杂度,支持动态环境下的实时方案调整。以郑州市“7·20”特大暴雨灾害为背景开展实证研究,结果表明,与顺序决策方法相比,所提动态优化模型的加权响应时间降低21.9%;基于数字孪生的实时决策算法能够在动态环境下保持92.3%的方案可行性;深度Q网络算法的计算效率较精确求解方法提升23.2倍,随问题规模增大加速比最高可达45.1倍。研究成果可为城市应急物流的智能化管理提供理论支撑与方法参考。

       

      Abstract: Urban emergency logistics systems face multiple challenges during sudden disaster scenarios, including dynamic demand evolution, real-time fluctuations in road network accessibility, and limited inventory resources. Traditional static optimization methods struggle to effectively address environmental uncertainties. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a digital twin-driven dynamic optimization approach for emergency distribution and constructs an integrated “digital twin - optimization model - reinforcement learning” decision-making framework. The proposed method comprises three core components: (1) an urban emergency logistics digital twin system architecture that achieves real-time perception and virtual mapping of physical system states through multi-source data fusion; (2) a multi-period emergency distribution scheduling model considering dynamic inventory constraints, which establishes cross-period coupling relationships between distribution decisions and warehousing status through inventory balance equations, with the objective of minimizing weighted response time; and (3) an adaptive decision-making algorithm based on Deep Q-Network (DQN) that reduces solution complexity through state feature selection and action discretization strategies, enabling real-time plan adjustment in dynamic environments. An empirical study is conducted based on the “7·20” extreme rainstorm disaster in Zhengzhou. The results demonstrate that: compared with sequential decision-making methods, the proposed dynamic optimization model reduces weighted response time by 21.9%; the digital twin-based real-time decision algorithm maintains 92.3% solution feasibility in dynamic environments; and the DQN algorithm achieves a 23.2-fold speedup in computational efficiency compared to exact solution methods, with acceleration ratios reaching up to 45.1-fold as problem scale increases. The research findings provide theoretical support and methodological reference for intelligent management of urban emergency logistics.

       

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