数字孪生驱动的城市应急配送动态优化

    Digital Twin-Driven Dynamic Optimization for Urban Emergency Distribution

    • 摘要: 突发灾害情景下城市应急物流系统面临需求动态演变、路网通行能力实时波动及库存资源受限等多重挑战,传统静态优化方法难以有效应对环境不确定性。针对上述问题,提出一种数字孪生驱动的应急配送动态优化方法,构建“数字孪生−优化模型−强化学习”三位一体决策框架。该方法包含3个核心组件:一是城市应急物流数字孪生系统架构,通过多源数据融合实现物理系统状态的实时感知与虚拟映射;二是考虑库存动态约束的多周期应急配送调度模型,引入库存平衡方程建立配送决策与仓储状态的跨期耦合关系,以最小化加权响应时间为优化目标;三是基于深度Q网络的自适应决策算法,通过状态特征筛选与动作离散化策略降低求解复杂度,支持动态环境下的实时方案调整。以郑州市“7·20”特大暴雨灾害为背景开展实证研究,结果表明,与顺序决策方法相比,所提动态优化模型的加权响应时间降低21.9%;基于数字孪生的实时决策算法能够在动态环境下保持92.3%的方案可行性;深度Q网络算法的计算效率较精确求解方法提升23.2倍,随问题规模增大加速比最高可达45.1倍。研究成果可为城市应急物流的智能化管理提供理论支撑与方法参考。

       

      Abstract: Urban emergency logistics systems face multiple challenges under sudden disaster scenarios, including dynamic demand evolution, real-time fluctuations in road network capacity, and limited inventory resources. Traditional static optimization methods struggle to effectively address environmental uncertainties. To address these issues, this paper proposes a digital twin-driven dynamic optimization approach for emergency distribution and constructs an integrated decision-making framework combining digital twin, optimization modeling, and reinforcement learning. The proposed method comprises three core components. First, a digital twin architecture for urban emergency logistics is established for real-time perception and virtual mapping of physical system states through multi-source data fusion. Second, a multi-period emergency distribution scheduling model considering dynamic inventory constraints is developed. Inventory balance equations are introduced to establish cross-period coupling relationships between distribution decisions and warehousing states, with the objective of minimizing the weighted response time. Third, an adaptive decision-making algorithm based on Deep Q-Network (DQN) is designed. The computational complexity is effectively reduced through state feature selection and action discretization strategies, enabling real-time plan adjustment in dynamic environments. An empirical study is conducted based on the “7•20” extreme rainstorm disaster in Zhengzhou, China. Results demonstrate that, compared with sequential decision-making methods, the proposed dynamic optimization model reduces weighted response time by 21.9%. The digital twin-based real-time decision algorithm maintains a solution feasibility rate of 92.3% in dynamic environments. Moreover, the DQN-based algorithm achieves a 23.2-fold improvement in computational efficiency compared to exact solution methods, with the acceleration ratio reaching up to 45.1 times as the problem scale increases. The research findings provide theoretical support and methodological reference for intelligent management of urban emergency logistics.

       

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