面向机动性输油管线的 AI 驱动预测性维护与健康管理系统

    An AI-driven Predictive Maintenance and Health Management System for Rapidly Deployable Fuel Pipelines

    • 摘要: 针对机动性输油管线部署场景复杂、工况动态多变,现有预测性维护与健康管理方法存在小样本预测精度不足、泛化能力弱、运维成本偏高等问题,开展机理−数据混合驱动的智能预测方法研究。构建适配机动部署场景的边缘−云协同系统架构,提出融合腐蚀机理约束与动态偏置长短期记忆网络的混合驱动预测算法,通过混合损失函数引入物理先验,缓解小样本场景下的模型泛化瓶颈。基于某野外机动输油管线30个月实测数据开展验证,结果表明,该模型预测均方根误差为0.012 ± 0.001,平均绝对误差为0.009 ± 0.001,较纯机理模型与单一长短期记忆网络模型预测精度分别提升85.9%与62.5%;不同训练样本占比下精度衰减幅度显著低于同类方法,复杂部署环境下预测准确率保持90%以上,整体运维成本降低40%以上。该研究可为机动输油管线智能化运维提供技术路径,也可为同类临时部署工业设施健康管理提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Given the complex deployment scenarios and dynamic operating conditions of rapidly deployable fuel pipelines, existing predictive maintenance and health management approaches suffer from limitations such as insufficient prediction accuracy under small-sample conditions, weak generalization capabilities, and high operational costs. To address these issues, this study investigates a mechanism-data hybrid-driven intelligent prediction method. We develop an edge-cloud collaborative system architecture tailored for rapid deployment scenarios and propose a hybrid prediction algorithm integrating corrosion mechanism constraints with dynamic bias long-term memory networks. By incorporating physical prior knowledge through a hybrid loss function, we alleviate the model generalization bottleneck in small-sample scenarios. Validation is conducted using 30 months of real-world measurement data collected from a rapidly deployable fuel pipeline. Results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.012 ± 0.001 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.009 ± 0.001, improving prediction accuracy by 85.9% and 62.5% over pure mechanism-based models and long-term-memory network models, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed model exhibits significantly lower accuracy degradation under varying training dataset proportions than comparable methods, maintaining over 90% prediction accuracy in complex deployment environments while reducing overall operational costs by more than 40%. This study provides a technical framework for intelligent operation and maintenance of rapidly deployable fuel pipelines and offers valuable insights for health management of similar temporary industrial facilities.

       

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