Abstract: According to the basic principle of AHP-GRA (analytic hierarchy process-grey relational analysis) model, analyze the influence of index of system’s outburst danger, and using correlation analysis to streamline tertiary indicators in order to reduce the sample size. By adding weight and optimize the Gray model, to improving the convergence speed, While increasing the accuracy of prediction model. Through regional analysis, combined with the instance, validate that the model can effectively predict the outburst dangerous level of coal mine system.