运载火箭箭体制造技术评价体系构建及其在钣金技术评价中的应用

    An Evaluation System for Launch Vehicle Airframe Manufacturing Technology with Application to Sheet Metal Technology Assessment

    • 摘要: 运载火箭技术的发展是国家综合科技实力的重要体现之一。本研究从技术资源、技术能力、技术效益以及社会与绿色效益4个维度,构建了一套“投入−产出”视角下的运载火箭制造技术综合评价体系。通过结合层次分析法、专家赋权法及熵权法确定各指标权重,采用灰色关联分析法进行综合评价。最后以T公司钣金相关技术为试点,验证所提出评价体系与方法的可行性和有效性。该指标体系在技术识别过程中兼顾工艺技术资源配置、能力建设及其最终效益表现,为未来火箭制造相关技术的评估与选择提供了系统化的方法论支持,同时为我国航天工业的技术评价提供了重要的理论参考与实践依据。

       

      Abstract: The development of launch vehicle technologies reflects a key indicator of national technological strength. This study proposes a comprehensive evaluation system for the technologies from an "input-output" perspective across four dimensions: technological resources, capabilities, benefits, as well as social and environmental impacts. By integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert weighting method, and entropy weighting method, the weight of each indicator is systematically determined, while Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) is applied for comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed evaluation system and methodology is verified through a case study on sheet metal related technologies at Company T. The established indicator system balances considerations of technology resource allocation, capability development, and final benefits, providing a systematic methodological support for assessing and selecting future rocket manufacturing technologies. Moreover, it offers valuable theoretical and practical references for the technological evaluation of Chinese aerospace industry.

       

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