Abstract:
In order to validate the CBN-based RMA method proposed in article
1, four common patterns are first introduced to simplify the structure modeling of the method, which will reduce the effort of experts' judgement in subsequent parameter modeling, and then the improved method is applied in risk analysis of Neelum-Jhelum hydropower station tunneling project in Pakistan. As a result, the contractors control effectively the project risks and obtain much more revenue than expected. This case shows that improved CBN-based RMA method has easy operability and will significantly enhance the efficiency of engineering risk management.