考虑市场前景的运载火箭研制GERT网络TCQ优化方法

    An Optimization Method of the TCQ in a Rocket Development Project by Using GERT Network and Considering Market Prospect

    • 摘要: 针对考虑市场前景的运载火箭多阶段研制项目管理优化问题,以火箭研制流程为基础,建立了多阶段GERT网络模型,用图示的方式描述项目活动,探析了火箭研制过程中时间、费用和质量之间相互作用关系(TCQ)并以此拓展了GERT网络传统解析算法;针对市场前景多可能性,结合多阶段GERT网络模型和前景理论构建了多阶段综合前景价值最大化的优化模型;最后以某火箭研制项目为例,详细描述该方法的具体实施步骤。研究结果表明通过对火箭研制项目中TCQ的优化调整能给项目活动带来更大的前景价值。

       

      Abstract: Aiming at management optimization of a multistage development project and considering market prospect for a launch vehicle, a multistage GERT network model is established based on the process of rocket development. The project activity is described in graphical way, and extending the traditional analytic algorithm of GERT network by analyzing the interaction between time, cost and quality in the process of rocket development (TCQ). In view of the possibility of market prospect, a multistage optimization model of comprehensive prospect value is constructed by combining the multistage GERT network model and Prospect theory. Finally, taking a rocket development project as an example, the specific implementation steps of the method are described and the result shows that the optimization adjustment of TCQ in the rocket development project can bring greater prospect value to the project activities than before.

       

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