基于装配相似性与灰色模型的汽车装配工时预测

    Man-hour Prediction Method for Automobile Assembly Based on Assembly Similarity and Grey Model

    • 摘要: 汽车企业为适应市场需求的不断变化,加快了推出新车型产品的步伐。针对目前汽车总装混流工时预测速度缓慢的问题,提出基于装配相似性与灰色理论GM(0,N)模型的装配工时预测方法。将装配工时按特性分为取料时间、定位时间和连接时间,提取影响各部分工时的关键因素,通过计算样本与基准零件的装配相似系数,结合装配工时在MATLAB中构建拟合曲线,最后在函数关系式和GM(0,N)模型中分别预测定位时间和连接时间。通过与MTM法进行比较,证实该方法具有准确性和高效性。

       

      Abstract: Automobile manufacturers speed up the launch of new products to meet the changing market demand. A man-hour prediction method for automobile assembly based on assembly similarity and grey model was put forward to solve the problem of slow prediction speed on mixed-model automobile assembly line. Assembly hour was classified into picking, positioning and coupling time by the characteristics, extracting key factors which influence assembly hour for each type. The similarity coefficient between the sample process and benchmark process was computed with factor database, constructing fitting curves in MATLAB combined with working hour data. The positioning and coupling time predictions were gained in the functional expression and GM(0, N) grey model. The accuracy and high-efficiency of proposed method was verified by comparing with Method-Time-Measurement.

       

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