疫情演变不确定情境下考虑多参考点的应急医疗用品生产决策模型

    Production Decision-making Model for Emergency Medical Supplies Considering Multiple Reference Points under Uncertainty of Epidemic Evolution

    • 摘要: 针对疫情演变不确定情境下考虑多种决策信息和企业社会责任的应急医疗用品生产决策问题,提出一种基于累积前景理论的考虑多个参考点的应急医疗用品生产决策模型。综合考虑企业经济目标和社会责任对生产决策的影响,基于决策者的风险规避、参考依赖和损失厌恶等心理特征,建立多个参考点以表征疫情演变方向不确定时决策者期望的不确定性。将含有多种评价信息的决策矩阵归一化处理,利用不同演变方向的参考点,建立益损决策矩阵。根据决策者面对收益和损失的态度,建立主观价值矩阵,依据主观概率函数得到扭曲后演变方向的概率。计算各个生产方案的累积前景值并对其进行优先排序。通过算例验证模型的有效性,进行对比分析和敏感性分析证明模型的优越性。

       

      Abstract: A model based on cumulative prospect theory considering multiple reference points is proposed for solving production decision-making problems of emergency medical supplies with multiple-format decision information and enterprise social responsibility under uncertainty of epidemic evolution. This model overall considers the influence of enterprises' economic targets and social responsibility in production decisions, and constructs multiple reference points to represent the uncertainty of decision-makers' expectations when the evolution direction of the epidemic is uncertain based on the psychological characteristics of decision-makers, such as risk and loss aversion, reference dependence. The decision matrix with multiple-format evaluation information is normalized, and the decision matrix of profit and loss is constructed according to the reference points in different evolution directions. The subjective value matrix is established by the attitude of decision-makers towards profit and loss, and the probability of the evolution direction after distortion is obtained according to the subjective probability function, then the cumulative prospect value of each production program is calculated and ranked. An example is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, and contrastive analysis and sensitivity analysis are employed to prove the superiority of the model.

       

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