工业工程

工业工程 ›› 2019, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 53-60.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.01.007

• 专题论述 • 上一篇    下一篇

建筑材料供应中断对承包商成本的冲击研究——基于鲁棒模型分析

员慧慧1, 温修春1, 陆建飞1, 孙华平2   

  1. 江苏大学 1.土木工程与力学学院;
    2. 财经学院, 江苏 镇江 212013
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-11 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-26
  • 作者简介:员慧慧(1993-),女,安徽省人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为工程管理、成本控制
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71774071）

Impact of Construction Material Supply Disruption on Contractor Cost——A Robust Model Analysis

YUAN Huihui1, WEN Xiuchun1, LU Jianfei1, SUN Huaping2   

  1. 1. Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China;
    2. Faculty of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
  • Received:2018-08-11 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-26

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摘要： 为了揭示供应商与承包商为主体的二级供应链中，两者间耦合作用条件下发生的供应中断对供应商最优决策及对承包商成本的影响机制，且剖析供应中断对承包商成本的冲击效应，以供应商存在高退出风险为研究对象，在仅知产量均值与方差条件下，运用Scarf提出的“极大极小值”鲁棒决策方法，通过设定不同决策情况下的供应链系统反馈，分析了不同退出标准情况下二级供应链的博弈过程。基于理论支撑下的鲁棒模型数值仿真结果得出：在退出标准α为100时，中间变量在290~350范围内，供应商存在最优决策，但承包商最优决策无法确定；与α为0时相比，在订货量达到一定状态，即α为140时，承包商成本增加了1.5%，表明承包商成本与供应商退出标准呈正相关，退出标准越高，对承包商成本造成的冲击效应越大。此研究结论为供应链初期不稳定且信息不完整条件下发生的供应中断影响机理提供了新的视角。

关键词: 供应中断, 部分信息, 鲁棒性, 最优决策, 极大极小值

Abstract: In order to reveal and analyze the impact of the supply interruption, which occurs under the coupling condition between the two subjects of the supplier and contractor-based secondary supply chain, on the supplier's optimal decision-making and the contractor's cost, the supplier's high exit risk is taken as a research object. While knowing only the output mean and variance, the worst-case robust decision-making method proposed by Scarf is used and the feedback of the supply chain system under different decision-making situations is set and the game process of the secondary supply chain under different exit criteria analyzed. Based on the theoretical simulation of the robust model, the numerical simulation results show that when the exit criterion α is 100, the intermediate variable is in the range of 290~350, and the supplier has the optimal decision, but the contractor's optimal decision cannot be determined; compared with α being 0, when the order quantity reaches a certain state, that is, α when is 140, the contractor's cost increases by 1.5%, indicating that the contractor's cost is positively related to the supplier's exit criteria. The higher the exit standard, the greater the impact on the contractor's cost. This conclusion provides a new perspective for the mechanism of supply disruption in the initial stage of unstable supply chain and incomplete information.

Key words: supply interruption, partial information, robustness, optimal decision, worst-case

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