人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2023.06.009

工业工程 ›› 2023, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 83-92.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2023.06.009

人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型

马彦辉, 左凯瑛, 王颖, 王志琼

天津理工大学管理学院，天津 300384

收稿日期:2022-09-27 发布日期:2024-01-09
通讯作者: 王志琼(1990-),男,辽宁省人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为质量管理、质量工程和统计过程控制。Email:zqwang315@email.tjut.edu.cn E-mail:zqwang315@email.tjut.edu.cn
作者简介:马彦辉(1978-),男,河北省人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为航天复杂装备质量管理与军工复杂产品供应链质量管理
基金资助:
国家国防科技工业局资助项目 (JSZL2019204A001；JSZL2021204B001；JSZL2022204B005)；国家自然科学青年基金资助项目 (71902138)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目 (19YJC630181)

An Improved Weighted BN-CREAM Model for Human Reliability Analysis

MA Yanhui, ZUO Kaiying, WANG Ying, WANG Zhiqiong

School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China

Received:2022-09-27 Published:2024-01-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 传统认知可靠性与失误分析方法 (cognitive reliability and error analysis method，CREAM) 存在诸多缺陷，导致适用面较窄，但仍具有较大的开发潜力。为提高方法评价的精度和扩展其适用性，提出一种改进加权的贝叶斯网络 (Bayesian network，BN) 与CREAM方法相结合的模型。该模型首先使用灰色关联法与决策实验室分析法获取在场景下因子的权重，再利用贝叶斯网络推理得到调整后的共同绩效条件因子节点概率分布；然后将加权后的因子进行抽样仿真，得到在该场景下人所处控制模式的概率分布。选用1 800 W定制种子电源的案例，通过分析评估结果，再对比其他方法，验证了模型的有效性和可行性。改进后模型的适用性更广，输出结果更客观，为人因可靠性评价指标体系的构建提供参考。

关键词: 人因可靠性评价, 认知可靠性与失误分析方法 (CREAM), 灰色−决策与实验室法, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract: Though there exists many defects in traditional cognitive reliability and error analysis methods (CREAM) , which leads to narrow application, they still have great development potential. This paper proposes a model combining an improved weighted Bayesian network (BN) and CREAM to improve the accuracy of evaluation and expand the application of the method. In this model, the weights of factors in the scenario are obtained first by the Grey-DEMATEL method. Then, the probability distribution of adjusted common performance condition (CPC) factor nodes is obtained by Bayesian network inference. Afterwards the weighted factors are sampled and simulated to obtain the probability distribution of the control mode in the scenario. A case study of 1800 W customized SEED power supply is used to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model through analysis of evaluation results and comparison with other methods. The improved model has wider applicability and more objective outputs, which provides a reference for the construction of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) index systems.

Key words: human reliability analysis, cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), Grey-DEMATEL (grey decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory), Bayesian network

中图分类号:

TM91

马彦辉, 左凯瑛, 王颖, 王志琼. 人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型[J]. 工业工程, 2023, 26(6): 83-92.

MA Yanhui, ZUO Kaiying, WANG Ying, WANG Zhiqiong. An Improved Weighted BN-CREAM Model for Human Reliability Analysis[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2023, 26(6): 83-92.

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人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型

An Improved Weighted BN-CREAM Model for Human Reliability Analysis

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