基于CAS理论的出版企业成长路径的选择与仿真

工业工程 ›› 2012, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (4): 89-95.

基于CAS理论的出版企业成长路径的选择与仿真

（天津大学管理与经济学部，天津 300072）

出版日期:2012-08-31 发布日期:2012-09-19
作者简介:原继东（1977-），男，河南省人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为科技创新与企业战略管理等.
基金资助:
国家软科学研究计划资助项目（2007GXQ4B110）

Selection and Simulation Study on Growth Way of Publishing Enterprises in China Based on CAS Theory

（Department of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China）

Online:2012-08-31 Published:2012-09-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从复杂适应系统（CAS）理论角度认知我国出版企业成长的路径选择行为模式，提出出版企业成长的自主发展型、动态模仿型和创新涌现型3种路径选择。基于多主体建模思想和Swarm仿真平台，通过出版企业主体描述、行为规则设定、市场环境模拟和选择遗传算法等方式，构建不完全竞争出版市场环境下多出版企业主体竞争博弈的成长路径选择仿真模型。仿真结果表明出版企业市场经历常规产品竞争、创新涌现竞争和动态模仿竞争3个典型成长阶段，据此提出了出版企业在各阶段成长的战略选择。

关键词: 出版企业, 复杂适应系统（CAS）理论, 成长路径选择, 多主体建模, Swarm仿真

Abstract: In the view of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory, the behavioral patterns for a publishing enterprise in China to select its growth way are analyzed. It is shown that there are three growth strategies to be selected, namely, independent development-oriented, the dynamic imitation, and innovation emerging ones. Then, based on the Swarm simulation platform, a multi-agent simulation model for competitive growth strategy selection of publishing enterprises in the incomplete competition market environment is developed. This is done by agent description, behavior rule setting, market environment simulation, and genetic algorithm. With this model, by simulation, it indicates that the growth of a publishing enterprise's market undergoes three phases: normal product competition, innovation emerging competition, and dynamic imitating competition phases. Based on the results, the growth strategy selection is proposed for different phases.

Key words: publishing enterprise, complex adaptive system (CAS) theory, strategy selection, multi-agent modeling, swarm simulation

原继东，王树恩. 基于CAS理论的出版企业成长路径的选择与仿真[J]. 工业工程, 2012, 15(4): 89-95.

Yuan Ji-dong, Wang Shu-en. Selection and Simulation Study on Growth Way of Publishing Enterprises in China Based on CAS Theory[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2012, 15(4): 89-95.

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