关键词: 恐怖袭击, 零和博弈, 度, 集聚系数, 风险评价

Abstract:

Grid system is regarded as the main source of urban life and production energy supply, once under a terrorist attack, it can lead to a series of chain reactions, and cause unexpected loss of life and property. Thus, it has become a desirable goal of the attackers. In order to avoid or reduce the grid system loss caused by an unexpected terrorist attack which is out of control, considering the limited defense resources, game theory is applied to the risk evaluation of the terrorist attack. First, based on degree and clustering coefficient method, the importance of each facility node in the grid is measured, and then, according to each facility node risk level, combined with the idea of zero sum game, loss probability and the allocation of defense resources of each node are established. A numerical example is introduced to validate the proposed method. It is theoretically confirmed that with the increase of the defense resources, more facility nodes can be allocated for defense resources, and defense resources allocated to each node increase correspondingly.  

Key words: terrorist attack, zero-sum game theory, degree, clustering coefficient, risk evaluation