企业研发项目中止决策的灰靶分析模型

工业工程

企业研发项目中止决策的灰靶分析模型

西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，四川成都 610031

出版日期:2016-10-31 发布日期:2017-02-21
作者简介:郭茜（1975-），女，河南省人，博士后，主要研究方向为项目管理、决策分析.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年项目（71502147，71371156）

A Grey Target Cluster Decision Model on Termination Decision for R & D Projects

School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China

Online:2016-10-31 Published:2017-02-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中止决策是研发项目过程管理中不可或缺的环节，是企业提高研发效率、改善资源配置的有效手段。根据该问题模糊多属性分类决策的本质，以案例分析为起点，结合模糊集与灰靶决策理论构建求解属性权重、临界点等分类参数的优化模型，利用所得参数计算待判项目的综合靶心矩，最后按照综合靶心矩所属区间对待判项目进行分类决策。将所提方法应用于一个具体的决策分析过程，其可行性和合理性得到验证。

关键词: 研发项目, 中止决策, 多属性分类决策, 灰靶模型

Abstract:

Termination decision for R & D project is a vital part in the process management for enterprises to improve the allocation of resource and increase their efficiency. According to the essence of fuzzy multi-criteria sorting decision in this problem, fuzzy set theory and grey target theory are utilized to construct an optimization model. By solving this model, attributes weights and sorting thresholds are obtained to calculate the targetcenter distance of the remaining projects, which determine the fittest class of the remaining projects according to their corresponding intervals. An application example of the proposed method is provided to demonstrate its rationality and feasibility.

Key words: R &, D project, termination decision, multi-criteria sorting problem, target model

郭茜，吴胜，付焯，陈思. 企业研发项目中止决策的灰靶分析模型[J]. 工业工程.

GUO Qian，WU Sheng，FU Zhuo，CHEN Si. A Grey Target Cluster Decision Model on Termination Decision for R & D Projects[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal .

参考文献

［1］STEFFENS W, MARTINSUO M, ARTTO K. Change decisions in product development project［J］. International Journal of Project Management, 2007, 25(7): 702-713.

［2］FRANCISCO JOSE M C, JOSE LUIS M A. New product performance indicators: time horizon and importance attributed by management［J］. Technovation, 2009, 29(10): 714-724.

［3］MUAMMER O. Factors which influence decision making in new product evaluation［J］. European Journal of Operational Research, 2005, 163(3): 784-801.

［4］PILAR C F, JOSE LUIS M A, ANAL I R Z. Criteria employed for go/no go decisions when developing successful highly innovative products［J］. Industrial Marketing Management, 2004, 33(4): 307-316.

［5］彭绍雄, 薄延珍. 基于云模型的装备研制项目中止决策方法［J］. 船舶电子工程, 2012, 32(2): 93-95.

PENG Shaoxiong, BO Yanzhen. Termination decision methods of equipment development project based on cloud model［J］. Ship Electronic Engineering, 2012, 32(2): 93-95.

［6］金洪波, 侯强. 基于可拓理论的研发项目中止决策分析［J］. 科技进步与对策, 2009, 26(7): 32-35.

JIN Hongbo, HOU Qiang. R & D termination decision methods based on extension theory［J］. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2009, 26(7): 32-35.

［7］汪洋, 孙林岩. 李克特式量表与模糊语言量表计分的差异比较—以梯形模糊数仿真为例［J］. 运筹与管理, 2008, 17(1): 48-52.

WANG Yang, SUN Linyan. Comparing the score difference between the Likert scale and the fuzzy linguistic questionnaire: the simulating research of trapezoid fuzzy number［J］. Operations Research and Management Science, 2008, 17(1): 48-52.

［8］徐玖平, 吴巍. 多属性决策的理论与方法［M］. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2006:226-232.［9］TSAI H H, LU I Y. The evaluation of service quality using generalized Choquet integral［J］. Information Science, 2006, 176(6): 640-663.

［10］宋捷, 党耀国, 王正新, 等. 正负靶心灰靶决策模型［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010, 30(10): 1822-1827.

SONG Jie, DANG Yaoguo, WANG Zhengxin, et al. New decision model of grey target with both the positive clout and the negative clout［J］. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice, 2010, 30(10): 1822-1827.

［11］管杜鹃, 郭鹏. 基于贝叶斯网络的项目组合风险度量［J］. 工业工程, 2015, 18(4): 31-35. GUAN Dujuan, GUO Peng. Assessment of project portfolio risk based on Bayesian Network［J］. Industrial Engineering Journal. 2015, 18(4): 31-35.

［12］王翯华, 朱建军, 方志耕. 基于案例分析的语言信息灰靶决策分类模型［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(12): 3172-3180.

WANG Haohua, ZHU Jianjun, FANG Zhigeng. Grey target cluster decision method on linguistic evaluation cased-based［J］. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(12): 3172-3180.