基于FANP的室外公共场所人群踩踏风险评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3204

工业工程 ›› 2017, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 16-21.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3204

基于FANP的室外公共场所人群踩踏风险评价

刘思施, 谢科范, 曹青

武汉理工大学管理学院, 湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2017-08-20 出版日期:2017-12-30 发布日期:2018-01-09
作者简介:刘思施(1987-),女,湖南省人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为风险管理、应急管理.
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点资助项目（15AGL021）

An Assessment of Human Stampede Risk in Outdoor Public Places Based on FANP

LIU Sishi, XIE Kefan, CAO Qing

School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

Received:2017-08-20 Online:2017-12-30 Published:2018-01-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为客观评价室外公共场所人群踩踏风险，积极采取预警预控措施，本文基于文献分析和事件梳理，识别了室外公共场所人群踩踏事件的触发因素，运用模糊网络评价方法（FANP）构建了室外公共场所的人群踩踏风险评价模型，利用Supper Decision软件计算出超矩阵、加权超矩阵和极限矩阵，并得到了模型的综合权重。研究结果表明，室外公共场所人群踩踏事件的关键风险因素排序依次是设备状况O₁、场地障碍O₂和人群拥挤密度I₁，其综合权重值分别为0.128、0.116、0.108。通过对室外公共场所人群踩踏风险因素的综合权重排序和分析，对人群踩踏风险进行了分级。最后，基于实地拍摄的视频进行了算例分析，得出了人群踩踏风险的数值。

关键词: 人群踩踏, 风险评价, 模糊网络分析, 风险分级

Abstract: To assess the human stampede risk in outdoor public places, the triggering factors of human stampede are summarized with theoretical analysis and case study. The Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) approach is employed to assess human stampede risk in outdoor public places. Based on the questionnaires and experts' assessment, the super matrix, weighted super matrix and limit matrix are computed by the Super Decision (SD) software. As is shown in the results of the model, the facility factor (O1), field obstacle (O2) and crowd density (I1) show significant effect on the human stampede risk, the comprehensive evaluation values of them are respectively 0.128, 0.116, and 0.108. An overall risk rating of human stampede risk is then obtained from calculating and reordering the comprehensive evaluation values. Then, based on calculation sample from real place photographed video, the risk metric of human stampede is obtained.

Key words: human stampede, risk evaluation, FANP, risk classification

中图分类号:

刘思施, 谢科范, 曹青. 基于FANP的室外公共场所人群踩踏风险评价[J]. 工业工程, 2017, 20(6): 16-21.

LIU Sishi, XIE Kefan, CAO Qing. An Assessment of Human Stampede Risk in Outdoor Public Places Based on FANP[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2017, 20(6): 16-21.

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基于FANP的室外公共场所人群踩踏风险评价

An Assessment of Human Stampede Risk in Outdoor Public Places Based on FANP

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