基于互谱分析的空管安全风险相关性研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对空中交通安全风险因素的特点，选取某机场陆空通讯失误事件作为样本数据，运用互谱分析在时间序列方面的优势，分析了空管安全风险因素对不安全事件的贡献度、超前滞后关系及相关性。结果显示，程序偏差对空管通讯失误事件的影响力达49%，设备故障和外来干扰的影响力分别为18%和4.8%，且具有同步影响效应，人员加班在3个月的短周期和9个月的长周期的影响力均为12%。在此基础上提出通讯失误风险的预控策略，即加强空管通讯程序执行的过程管理，合理调配空管通讯的相关资源，优化管制工作人员的排班计划，从而预先防范通讯不安全事件及事故的发生。

关键词: 互谱分析, 空中交通管制, 安全风险, 相关性, 预控策略

Abstract: According to the features of air traffic control (ATC) safety risk factors, the events of airground communication failure in the airport are chosen as the sample data. Taking the advantage of crossspectrum analysis in the aspect of time series, the contribution, leadlag relationship and correlation of ATC safety risk factors are analyzed. The results show that the influence of process deviation to ATC unsafe events is 49%. The influence of equipment failures and external interference, respectively 18% and 4.8%, has synchronization effect. Therefore, aiming at the decisions of communication unsafe events for precontrol strategies, process management of communication program execution should be strengthened, pertinent resources be allocated reasonably, and the shift arrangement plan optimized so as to prevent from communication unsafe events and accidents.

Key words: cross-spectrum analysis, air traffic control, safety risks；correlation； pre-control strategies

罗帆, 杨智, 刘小平. 基于互谱分析的空管安全风险相关性研究[J]. 工业工程, 2014, 17(1): 7-11.

Luo Fan, Yang Zhi, Liu Xiao ping. A Research on Correlation of Air Traffic Control Safety Risks- Based on Cross-spectrum Analysis[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2014, 17(1): 7-11.

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