供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调

工业工程 ›› 2014, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 27-32.

供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调

1.嘉兴学院商学院，浙江嘉兴 314001；2.杭州电子科技大学管理学院，
浙江杭州 310018；3.中共浙江省委党校浙江省科学发展观与浙江发展研究中心,浙江杭州 311121

出版日期:2014-06-30 发布日期:2014-07-14
作者简介:朱传波(1976-),男,安徽省人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为物流与供应链管理、供应链应急管理.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70732003,71171070）；国家社科基金青年项目（10CGL026）；浙江省自然科学基金资助项目（LY12G02009,LQ12G01004）

Supply Chain Recovery Capacity Investment Decision and Coordination under Supply Disruption

1. School of Business, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001, China； 2. Management School, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China；〖JP2〗3. Zhejiang Scientific Development Research Center,Zhejiang Provincial Committee Party School of CPC, Hangzhou 311121, China

Online:2014-06-30 Published:2014-07-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 摘要：〖HTSS〗为了减缓供应商生产运营中断对制造商带来的供应中断风险，制造商需要在突发事件前优化供应链恢复能力投资水平。引入CVaR来刻画供应链在突发事件下的应急目标，建立了一定置信水平控制下的供应链恢复能力投资的决策模型，进而揭示了制造商风险规避程度对供应链最优恢复能力投资水平的影响。分权供应链下，制造商运用基于绩效的契约来激励供应商投资合适的恢复能力，以协调供应链。结论表明,CVaR可以恰当描述供应链恢复的能力投资行为，当风险规避程度越高，供应链最优恢复能力投资越多；当单位中断时间的惩罚系数的条件期望值等于单位中断时间的商誉成本的条件期望值时，供应链进入协调状态。

关键词: 供应中断, 能力恢复, 应急管理, 供应链协调, 条件风险值（CVaR）

Abstract: To mitigate the risk of supply disruption to the manufacturers resulting from the suppliers production interruption, the manufacturer needs to optimize the level of supply chain recovery capacity investment prior to a disruption. Conditional ValueatRisk (CVaR) is introduced to characterize the supply chains operation goal under disruption. A decisionmaking model of supply chain recovery capacity investment under certain confidence control level is established. Furthermore, the degree of the manufactures risk aversion on the optimal level of supply chain recovery capacity investment is investigated. In a decentralized supply chain, the manufacturer uses the PerformanceBased Contract to encourage suppliers to invest right recovery capacity in order to coordinate a supply chain. The results show that the CVaR criteria can describe the behavior of supply chain recovery capacity investment, the higher the degree of the manufactures risk aversion, the more the optimal supply chain recovery capacity is. The supply chain is coordinated when the conditional expected value of penalty coefficient of unit outage time is equal to the conditional expected value of goodwill cost of unit outage time.

Key words: supply disruption, capacity recovery, disruption management, supply chain coordination, conditional value at risk (CVaR)

朱传波1，陈畴鏞2，包兴3. 供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调[J]. 工业工程, 2014, 17(3): 27-32.

Zhu Chuan-bo1, Chen Chou-yong2, Bao Xing3. Supply Chain Recovery Capacity Investment Decision and Coordination under Supply Disruption[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2014, 17(3): 27-32.

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