Abstract: In inventory impawn financing services, when impawn financing is adopted by a firm, some factors, such as ordering cycle and price, are difficult to be predicted exactly. Thus, it is unable to evaluate the profit gained by the firm. To solve this problem, based on the DempsterShafer (DS) evidence theory, a quantitative analysis method is proposed. By this method, complementary cumulative belief and plausibility functions are constructed, respectively. Then, with evidence inference, the pessimistic and optimistic estimations of profit distribution are obtained for the firm who adopts inventory impawn financing. In this way, the mean value can be used as approximate profit. With a case problem, simulation is carried out to validate the proposed method. Results indicate that the proposed method is more objective than the traditionally probabilitybased method, and can get more information than methods that use interval analysis. The new method can provide evidences for decisionmakers who are either riskaverse or riskhappy.  

Key words: logistics financing, inventory impawn financing, DempsterShafer (DS) evidence theory