Abstract: In inventory impawn financing business, some factors, such as ordering cycle and price, are difficult to predict accurately, which make the quantitative evaluation of firm profit complicated. To solve this problem, an enterprise profit model under inventory impawn financing business is developed. With this model, two types of experts’ opinions for uncertain parameters are fused by using evidence theory such that probability distributions of uncertain parameters are derived. Then, probability distribution of enterprise profit under inventory impawn financing business is analyzed by using Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicate that the proposed method is useful and effective. The method is also more practical than an interval analysis approach and can provide quantitative evidences for decisionmakers who are risk-averse or risk preferential.

Key words: logistics financing, inventory impawn financing, evidence theory, Monte Carlo simulation