关键词: 应急医疗用品生产决策, 不确定情境, 企业社会责任, 多参考点, 累积前景理论

Abstract: A model based on cumulative prospect theory considering multiple reference points is proposed for solving production decision-making problems of emergency medical supplies with multiple-format decision information and enterprise social responsibility under uncertainty of epidemic evolution. This model overall considers the influence of enterprises' economic targets and social responsibility in production decisions, and constructs multiple reference points to represent the uncertainty of decision-makers' expectations when the evolution direction of the epidemic is uncertain based on the psychological characteristics of decision-makers, such as risk and loss aversion, reference dependence. The decision matrix with multiple-format evaluation information is normalized, and the decision matrix of profit and loss is constructed according to the reference points in different evolution directions. The subjective value matrix is established by the attitude of decision-makers towards profit and loss, and the probability of the evolution direction after distortion is obtained according to the subjective probability function, then the cumulative prospect value of each production program is calculated and ranked. An example is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, and contrastive analysis and sensitivity analysis are employed to prove the superiority of the model.

Key words: production decision-making for emergency medical supplies, uncertainty, corporate social responsibility, multiple reference points, cumulative prospect theory