工业工程

工业工程 ›› 2017, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 1-8,27.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-2024

• 实践与应用 •    下一篇

基于FCM-DEMATEL航班风险评估与改进

陈晔1, 陈萌1, 徐海燕1, 谢华2   

  1. 1. 南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院, 江苏 南京 211106;
    2. 南京航空航天大学 民航学院, 江苏 南京 211106
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-17 出版日期:2017-06-30 发布日期:2017-07-12
  • 作者简介:陈晔(1974-)男,江苏省人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为多目标决策、风险分析
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71471087）

FCM-DEMATEL-based Flight Safety Evaluation and Improvement Method

CHEN Ye1, CHEN Meng1, XU Haiyan1, XIE Hua2   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;
    2. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
  • Received:2017-02-17 Online:2017-06-30 Published:2017-07-12

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摘要： 提出了运用模糊认知图（FCM）和网络层次分析法（ANP）相结合的评估模型，对指标间存在的复杂相互影响关系进行量化测度，构建影响关系矩阵，计算指标收敛权重及指标稳定状态值；进一步运用决策试验与实验室法（DEMATEL）分析获得影响航班风险的主要因素，针对这些关键指标，设计改进情景，计算不同改进方案的效果，为航班运行控制提供有效的决策优化方向，从而实现风险的主动管控；最后通过应用案例验证了方法的可行性。

关键词: 航班风险评估, 模糊认知图(FCM), 网络层次分析法(ANP), 决策试验与实验室法(DEMATEL), 影响关系矩阵

Abstract: Flight safety is the core of air traffic safety management;hence,it is important to develop effective evaluation methods to assess the risk of flight safety.A systematical framework combining two theoretical models including fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and analytic network process (ANP) is proposed to tackle the interdependence modeling problem among different evaluation criteria.Firstly,criteria interdependence among difference factor groups are discussed and measured utilizing the FCM-ANP hybrid model to furnish the construction of criteria interdependence measurement matrix.Based upon the obtained matrix,ANP is employed to calculate the stable criteria weights and FCM is used to identify the converged state of criteria values.The decision making trial and laboratory method (DEMATEL) is then implemented to analyze the key criteria factors influencing flight safety and based on the identified key factors,different improvement scenarios can be designed and their effects simulated through FCM model to select the best risk mitigation policy.Finally,a case study adapted from a real airline company's operational data is used to demonstrate the proposed method and verify its feasibility.

Key words: flight risk evaluation, fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), analytic network process (ANP), decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), criteria influence relationship matrix

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