工业工程

工业工程 ›› 2012, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (3): 122-129.

• 实践与应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

MTO生产模式的完工期预测及承诺交货期决策

  

  1. 广东工业大学 管理学院，广东 广州，510520
  • 出版日期:2012-06-30 发布日期:2012-07-21
  • 作者简介:胡盛强(1984-)，男，湖南省人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为生产系统组织、控制与优化.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目（70971026）；广东省自然科学基金资助项目（9151009001000045）；广东省普通高校人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(08jdxm63004)

Order Completion Date Estimation and Due Date Decision under Make-to-Order Mode

  1. School of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510520,China
  • Online:2012-06-30 Published:2012-07-21

摘要： 在订单式生产的中小制造企业中，订单的完成过程受诸多不确定因素的影响。考虑影响完工期的确定因素及随机因素，如生产时间、插单的等待时间、机械故障等待时间、误工时间、损耗率及返工率等，根据数据统计分析假定各因素服从一定的随机分布，建立了完工期区间预测模型，通过多次仿真得到了完工期区间范围。以相关原则为依据，通过比较预测完工期及客户要求交货期，做出承诺交货期及价格决策。最后进行灵敏度分析，通过仿真得到完工期均值与各随机变量对应参数的变化关系，在此基础上提出了控制完工期影响因素的措施。

关键词: 订单式生产, 不确定性, 完工期预测, 交货期

Abstract:  Under make-to-order (MTO) environment, in the small-and-medium-size manufacturing enterprises, the order fulfillment is affected by many certain and random factors such as processing time variation, urgent order insertion, machine failure, scrap and rework, waiting, and so on. Based on the assumption that each random factor has a known stochastic distribution, a model of estimating the order completion date is developed. With this model, order completion date can be obtained by simulation. Then, by considering the customer’s delivery requirement, order due date and price can be determined. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to understand the interrelations among the mean order completion date and the uncertain factors. Finally, suggestions are given for how to control the uncertain factors.

Key words: make-to-order (MTO), uncertainty, completion date estimation, due date